Using night-vision goggles and thermal cameras, believers in Bigfoot traverse North American forests under the cover of darkness, as the large ape-like creature is believed to be nocturnal. Some Bigfoot trackers use plaster kits to make casts of suspected footprints; they record first-hand sightings and mysterious knocking sounds in detailed online databases, much like birders document observations on eBird.

On Oct. 10, about 50 of these believers — many avid outdoors-people who also spend their time camping, hunting and trapping — gathered at a church in North Bay, Ont., to discuss their experiences looking for Bigfoot, also known as Sasquatch. It was a good turnout for a small northern city on Thanksgiving weekend. The energy was lively but focused and, at times, even emotional. 

Some were sharing their stories for the first time; this felt like a safe space to discuss their beliefs, one person said, as others agreed that they felt likely to be ridiculed elsewhere. Creating a welcoming environment was the goal of the conference’s organizer, Andrew MacKellar, who has searched for the creature for nearly 15 years, and is a well-known “sqautcher,” or Bigfoot investigator.

“Most humans do find things fascinating that they don’t fully understand,” MacKellar told The Narwhal after the event, the first of its kind in North Bay. “[Recently] there seemed to be, around the Great Lakes, a spike of sightings or encounters with people, even compared to usual. So I just wanted to draw that out for the North Bay area, and to see if that was the case.”

Research from University of British Columbia found that around 10 per cent of Canadians believe in Sasquatch. Some of those believers, like MacKellar, collect detailed data to support their theories, and thousands of reports have been uploaded to the Bigfoot Field Researchers Organization.

And their data, believe it or not, is being put to use by University of Montreal ecologist and data scientist Timothée Poisot. From the documented sightings of cryptids — creatures anecdotally sighted but lacking scientific proof — he is testing how accurately computer models are predicting the impacts of climate change on scientifically accepted plants and animals.

Part of the reason he chose Bigfoot is the abundance of data.

“We have, collectively, more information about Bigfoot sightings than we have about maybe 90 per cent of mammals in North America,” Poisot said.

Bigfoot’s contribution to science

Poisot studies how machine learning tools can help solve complicated ecological problems; he’s been working on improving computer models that predict where species might live in the changing climate. The models use data — like where a certain animal has been spotted, weather conditions of those places and how the climate might change there — to make these predictions for the future. 

The problem is these models aren’t always great at communicating how certain they are about a prediction. For example, if we don’t understand a particular climate well, the resulting model’s predictions for that area might be less accurate. This is an issue when policymakers or researchers use those predictions for things like early detection of invasive species or making expensive decisions to protect endangered animals.

To address this problem, Poisot looked to a statistical technique called conformal prediction, which helps scientists measure uncertainty in computer-generated biodiversity predictions. 

That’s where Bigfoot comes in. 

Poisot fed a computer model data from thousands of reported Bigfoot sightings, along with environmental data about the area where they occurred. The model learned patterns in these observations, predicting where Bigfoot might live as the surrounding environment changes. Then, Poisot applied conformal prediction, revealing where the model could confidently predict Bigfoot’s supposed presence or absence, and where it couldn’t. 

“I wanted to figure out a way to get a model to tell you ‘I don’t know’ when it’s about to make a prediction about whether species should be here or not,” Poisot said. “The models don’t know and don’t care whether the species that we’re working on actually exists or not. As soon as you feed them numbers, they’re going to give you numbers.”

The model is identifying relationships between the climate conditions and the reported sightings, not determining whether those sightings are real. 

“Assume Bigfoot exists,” Poisot said. “We’re going to talk about the models, the behaviour and the statistics and the predictions, and that gets easier to move the conversation to a place where you can make the methodology better by not thinking too much about the biology.”

This makes Bigfoot a useful test case for a technique that can later be applied to other species.

What Poisot found using data from Sasquatch enthusiasts surprised even him: the areas where the climate is expected to change the most were not necessarily areas where the model’s uncertainty increased. The models were most uncertain in harder-to-reach areas with fewer observations.

In the future, Poisot told The Narwhal, scientists will need more information in remote areas, far from cities and roads, to be able to make accurate predictions about the state of biodiversity in a changing climate.

“You go to the areas where you are writing a lot of question marks because you don’t really know what’s going to happen here,” Poisot said. “The model is not certain about its outcome, so that should be a priority for sampling.”

Bigfoot’s origin and modern day stories

The legend of Bigfoot has centuries of history rooted in Indigenous storytelling. The name Sasquatch is believed to come from the Halq’eméylem word Sasq’ets meaning “wild man” or “hairy man,” used by the Stó:lō people, a Coast Salish First Nation in what’s now called British Columbia.  

For Thomas Sewid, a Kwakwaka’wakw and Cree Sasquatch investigator who guides expeditions in British Columbia and Washington, the subject has been on his mind from his earliest memories. Especially D’sonoqua — Sasquatch’s female companion in Kwakwaka’wakw tradition — thanks to stories from his father.

“He said, ‘Tommy, you behave yourself. D’sonoqua is always watching you,’” Sewid said. Growing up on Vancouver Island, he was told if he didn’t behave, do his chores or listen to his Elders, “she can come at night and reach that big hairy arm into where you’re sleeping and grab you … she’s going to boil you up and eat you.” 

“That’s when I became interested in Sasquatch,” Sewid said. “The greatest teaching Sasquatch can share with us is about respect.”

Several of the attendees at the North Bay event from nearby Nipissing First Nation and other Indigenous communities, and agreed with Sewid that many distinct Indigenous cultures  across North America have their own beliefs and understandings about the creature.

When citizen scientists across Canada collect data, whether on Bigfoot or using more conventional apps like iNaturalist and eBird, Poisot said it can be used to help inform policy and conservation decisions, or the tracking of invasive species and zoonotic disease. So, despite a recurring theme of distrust toward “mainstream science” in speeches at the North Bay conference, the interests of “squatchers” and scientists may actually be complementary. 

“The effort of documenting biodiversity is something that is done primarily by amateur scientists and members of the public,” Poisot said. “It’s really important. Most of what we know about biodiversity was not collected by researchers … and so, the more people contribute observations, the more likely we are to detect trends at the location where they are important.”

While they’re certainly approaching their interest in Bigfoot from different angles, there is one thing MacKellar and Poisot agree on: the value of getting out to collect more environmental data.

“Go out and try and prove their existence, or … go out to disprove them. Either way, you go out for a hike outside in the wilderness. I mean, what side really loses, right?” MacKellar said.

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.