Get the inside scoop on The Narwhal’s environment and climate reporting by signing up for our free newsletter.

An election is always about power — the power to govern, to make decisions and shape communities — but in Ontario, the provincial election has a more tangible spark. 

Energy policy has long defined Premier Doug Ford’s leadership, often to confusing and contradictory degrees. 

In 2018, he first led the Tories to victory with promises to fix the province’s “hydro mess.” This included cancelling the cap-and-trade program — a $3-billion emissions-reduction effort between Ontario, Quebec and California — along with hundreds of renewable energy projects, including a $100-million half-built wind farm. He also laid waste to successful energy savings programs and ripped out dozens of electric vehicle chargers.  

In 2022, the government won a second term, reversing course on the latter, promising to turn Ontario into a critical mineral and manufacturing hub for electric vehicles, and making a verbal commitment to create a “100 per cent” clean energy system.

The Ford government’s chase for the third term is marked by a desperate thirst for more electricity, which has meant making new promises that reverse old, ill-guided decisions. 

Weeks before the campaign kickoff, the government launched a more robust version of energy savings programs it cancelled eight years ago: a $10.9-billion, 12-year investment to help homeowners install heat pumps, rooftop solar panels, battery storage systems and smart thermostats. It pledged $2 billion to refurbish and expand hydroelectric stations across northern Ontario. And the government invested $285 million to advance work on a controversial pumped storage project in Meaford, Ont., that, if greenlit, will produce and store power for peak demand hours. 

Despite the risk of military explosives, TC Energy wants to build ‘Ontario’s battery’ on Georgian Bay

In January alone, the government pledged more than $17 billion for all these promises and more. That sum doesn’t include the cost of a newly promised nuclear facility in Port Hope — the price tag hasn’t been announced but, for context, Bruce Power, which produces 30 per cent of Ontario’s electricity, cost $8 billion to construct more than three decades ago and is undergoing a $13-billion refurbishment and expansion. 

All of this is in service of turning Ontario into what Energy Minister Stephen Lecce defines as an “energy superpower” to meet soaring demand for electricity, 75 per cent more by 2050. In October, after eight years in power, the Ford government released its first energy strategy —  a 38-page “vision statement” that pledged an “all-of-the-above approach” to energy planning that included all sources of electricity, including renewables and natural gas. 

Ontario needs a lot more electricity — AI is part of the reason. Here’s what you need to know

A strategy is needed to bridge tumultuous times, and Lecce even acknowledged its function to separate energy policy from political timelines. “We need more long-term vision to build our energy security and we need governments to think beyond two to three-year cycles to think about our kids and grandkids,” he told reporters on Jan. 23. 

The problem is this government’s long-awaited energy strategy remains vague on details and goals, even as Lecce continues to make one energy announcement after another. In the last few months, the government has aggressively pursued nuclear energy, from Port Hope to refurbishing Pickering’s nuclear plant. These projects are time consuming, expensive and come with a host of challenges, namely the toxic waste they produce that we don’t currently have a permanent place to store (though announcements on that front have also trickled out, and they aren’t without controversy either). 

The Ford government also continues to prioritize fossil fuel-generated power, both for electricity — with new gas plants announced throughout Ford’s last term — and heating. Last year, the government overruled a decision by the Ontario Energy Board, an independent energy regulator, that would’ve forced Enbridge Gas or developers to pay for new natural gas infrastructure instead of homeowners. In making the decision, the province weighed Enbridge Gas’s concerns.

Enbridge Gas is ‘fighting for its survival’ — and that means keeping Ontario on fossil fuels

The government’s strategy sets out no direction on natural gas, something the board and the government’s own appointed experts have identified as a major gap. The fact is, Ontario’s grid has become dirtier under this government’s watch and it has ignored recommendations to shift away from natural gas. 

Now Ford has weaponized Ontario’s electricity in the ongoing tariff debate between the U.S. and Canada. In December, Ford said he would consider restricting electricity flows to New York and other states in the event of tariffs as a “last resort” option. Even as a Hail Mary it’s a risky thing to suggest as Ontario’s demand is forecast to outweigh supply at home over the next few years, meaning we could need their power as much as they need ours. But Ford is willing to bet on it, with his energy minister heading to Washington twice last month to appeal directly to U.S. lawmakers, once with the premier. 

Canada and the U.S. have shared electricity for more than a century. Is that at risk?

In the meantime, most electric vehicle plants are still in the process of opening in Ontario, and with the looming tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. — as well as imported car parts — it’s unclear when they’ll be producing cars (even if Ford has promised to continue investing in the sector on the campaign trail).

Over the past month, one thing has become clear: power over, and within, Ontario is at stake in this election.

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.