Wind power has become so successful that it could provide 25 to 30 per cent of global electricity supply by mid-century if vested interests don’t get in the way, according to a new report published Tuesday.

The report — Global Wind Energy Outlook 2014 — said that commercial wind power installations in more than 90 countries had a total installed capacity of 318 gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2013, providing about three per cent of global electricity supply.

By 2030, the report said, wind power could reach 2,000 GW, supply up to 17 to 19 per cent of global electricity, create over two million new jobs and reduce CO2 emissions by more than three billion tonnes per year.

The report published by the Global Wind Energy Council and Greenpeace International noted that while emissions-free wind power continues to play a growing role in international electricity supply, political, economic and institutional inertia is hampering attempts to deal with the consequences of climate change.

“The fossil fuel industry, the most powerful vested interest in the world today, continues to do everything it can to obfuscate the science and slow down political progress,” the report said.

“Not their least pernicious influence is on the politicians they own, particularly those in the U.S. Congress – and in the places where the fossil fuel industry is a family business masquerading as a national government in the Persian Gulf – and in the places where fossil fuel exports have become a blunt political and military instrument to bludgeon recalcitrant neighbours into submission.”

Using the International Energy Agency’s New Policies scenario from the World Energy Outlook as a baseline, the 58-page Global Wind Energy Outlook (GWEO) report developed both a moderate and an advanced scenario to explore the future of the wind energy industry from 2020 to 2050.

Under the moderate scenario, which takes into account all policy measures to support renewable energy either already enacted or in the planning stages around the world, wind energy potential will quadruple between 2020 and 2050 from 712 to 2,672 GW.

(For detail junkies, the projected increases are as follows: 712 GW of cumulative wind power capacity by 2020, 1,479 GW by 2030, 2,089 GW by 2040 and 2,672 GW by 2050.)

The advanced scenario outlines the extent to which the wind industry could grow in a best case ‘wind energy vision,’ but still well within the capacity of the industry as it exists today and is likely to grow in the future, assuming an unambiguous commitment to renewable energy. Under this advanced scenario, cumulative wind energy capacity could increase by nearly five times, from 800 GW in 2012 up to 4,042 GW in 2050.

(The details: It would see 800 GW by 2020, 1,933 GW by 2030, 3,024 GW by 2040 and 4,042 GW by 2050.)

Wind power has a potentially massive role to play in the elimination of fossil fuel emissions. Swapping one month’s use of fossil fuels for 100 kWhs of wind power is the equivalent of taking one car off the road for 2,400 miles or 3,862 kilometres according to How Stuff Works.

In a media release accompanying the report, Steve Sawyer, CEO of GWEC, said wind power has become the cheapest cost option when adding new capacity to electricity grids in an increasing number of markets.

“Given the urgency to cut down CO2 emissions and continued reliance on imported fossil fuels, wind power’s pivotal role in the world's future energy supply is assured,” Sawyer said.

In a related Greenpeace International blog posting, Sven Teske, the organization’s senior energy expert, said that by 2020, wind power could prevent more than one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from being emitted each year by dirty energy.

“That’s equivalent to Germany’s and Italy’s emissions combined, or Africa’s total CO2 emissions, or those of Japan, or two-thirds of what India pumps out,” Teske said.

The report noted that science indicates global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak in the next five years if humankind is to have any reasonable chance of avoiding the worst ravages of man-made climate change — i.e. keeping global mean temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

The power sector is the largest single contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions – about 40 per cent of energy-related CO2 emissions, and about 25 per cent of overall greenhouse gas emissions — the report said.

Massive implementation of existing energy-efficiency and energy-saving technologies is needed in the next five to 10 years, no new coal plants should be built, and natural gas should be used wherever possible, it added.

In addition, the report predicted that while solar power may be the largest power source by mid-century, the biggest contribution to emission-reductions in the next decade will come from hydro and wind.

Image Credit: Lillgrund wind farm by Vattenfall via Flickr.

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It may not rank in popularity with the World Cup but a growing interest in Global Wind Day (June 15) continues to underscore the significant contribution that the emissions-free electricity-generating technology is making to mitigate the worst excesses of burning fossil fuels.

No longer considered an alternative energy source, the wind power sector is now present in more than 80 nations and had generated a global cumulative installed capacity of 318,105 megawatts (MW) by the end of last year.

Despite having to still fight the NIMBY factor in some places, or craven politicians beholden to the business-as-usual coal, oil and gas lobbies, the wind power industry is proving it is already a dependable component of the low-carbon economy that humankind needs to embrace if it is to survive.

The statistics are indisputable.

According to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), six countries had more than 10,000 MW in cumulative installed capacity by the end of last year including China (91,412 MW), the U.S. (61,091 MW), Germany (34,250 MW), Spain (22,959 MW), India (20,150 MW) and the U.K. (10,531 MW).

China was once again the largest overall national market for wind power last year, adding an additional 16,088 MW. The U.S. took second place with an extra 1,084 MW installed in 2013. Canada added 1,599 of additional capacity, bringing its total to 7,803 MW.

GWEC noted that, as a region, Europe was still the major player in the global industry, adding 12,031 MW of capacity and bringing its total to 121,474 MW. All of Asia, however, generated 18,216 additional MW in 2013 for a total of 115,927 MW. Including Mexico, North America added 3,063 MW for a cumulative total of 70,811 MW.

But there is more to wind power than statistics.

GWEC said the U.S. wind power sector experienced a tough year in 2013 even though domestic wind capacity can already power the equivalent of more than 15 million average American homes.

“Question marks throughout 2012 surrounding the pending extension of the federal Production Tax Credit (PTC), which caused the industry supply chain and project development pipeline to drastically slow down, meant manufacturers and developers had to work especially hard to ramp back up and secure new growth.”

GWEC added the U.S. wind industry experienced last year a 92 per cent drop in new installations compared to 2012, primarily due to policy uncertainty over the key tax incentive which was eventually extended on Jan. 1, 2013.

“A few states stand out as role models for the country, powering past old records and setting new standards for renewable energy sources across the United States,” GWEC said. “One particular day in May 2013, Colorado set a new record by producing over 60 per cent of its electricity from wind. In Texas, wind power is approaching 10 per cent of the state’s total electricity generation. Iowa is producing 25 per cent of its power from wind, and overall, nine states obtain 10 per cent or more of their electricity from wind energy.”

GWEC said the progress of Canada’s wind energy sector in 2013 provides a strong foundation on which to build. The Brussels-based organization added wind energy is now positioned to supply approximately three per cent of Canada’s electricity demand; enough power to meet the annual needs of over two million Canadian homes.

“As the provinces begin to lay out plans for what their future electricity supply mix will look like, they have signalled a common desire to seek affordable power that provides strong economic development potential and minimal environmental impacts – characteristics highly favourable to future wind energy development,” GWEC noted.

“A strong majority of Canadians support more wind energy development, so it remains important to continue to work with allies to have wind energy supporters’ voices heard in discussions on Canada’s electricity future…Continued political support and policy stability is critical to ensure wind energy continues to deliver clean, safe and affordable power to Canadian families and businesses.”

The many benefits of wind power are also being endorsed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which notes the technology continues to improve rapidly, the costs of generation from land-based installations continue to fall and the industry is now being deployed in countries with good resources without any dedicated financial incentives.

The IEA’s Wind Power Technology Roadmap “targets 15 per cent to 18 per cent share of global electricity from wind power by 2050, a notable increase from the 12 per cent aimed for in 2009. The new target of 2,300 [gigawatts] GW to 2,800 GW of installed wind capacity will avoid emissions of up to 4.8 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year.”

The roadmap says achieving those targets requires rapid scaling up of the current annual installed wind power capacity from 45 GW in 2012 to 65 GW by 2020, to 90 GW by 2030 and to 104 GW by 2050. The annual investment needed would be USD 146 billion to USD 170 billion, the roadmap added.

It also pointed out that higher levels of “low-cost wind still require predictable, supportive regulatory environments and appropriate market designs. The challenges of integrating higher levels of variable wind power into the grid need to be addressed. For offshore wind, much remains to be done to develop appropriate large-scale systems and to reduce costs.”

So lots to think about around this Global Wind Day, from green electricity to dependable power for a growing global population. One certainty is this: wind power is already a major player in our low-carbon future.

Image Credit: Wind turbine at the Ocotillo Express Wind Energy Project by slworking2 via Flickr.

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