As snowcover recedes from the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska each spring, thousands of Porcupine Caribou arrive to graze on new plant growth and calve the next generation of this herd that is the ecological and cultural backbone of the region.

Following ancient trails through the Brooks, Ogilvie and Richardson mountain ranges on both sides of the Alaska/Yukon border, the herd’s migratory path to this sanctuary is one of the longest of any land mammal.

Yet with a new President in power that promises to open hydrocarbon development in the Arctic, this iconic herd’s migratory way of life could be threatened.

The North’s great barren-ground caribou herds, a sub-species grouping to which the Porcupine belong, were recently listed as ‘threatened’ by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada.

A combination of habitat loss, industrial development and climate change have provided a formidable challenge for the notoriously sensitive creatures.

While the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed 2016 as the warmest year on record for our planet, making it the third year in a row to re-write the record books, the arctic as a whole is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe.

Dramatic changes are already evident across the north, with warming permafrost and earlier lake melts signaling not just a change in weather for places like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but an existential threat to a way of life that has existed for millennia.

Moving even faster than global or regional warming trends, a political step-change in Washington has also sent shockwaves that seem to bode ill for the environment.

Under the patriotic banner of energy security, Donald Trump campaigned on the promise of expanding domestic fossil fuel development.

We haven’t had to wonder long whether president Trump’s “America First Energy Plan” was just empty rhetoric.

Trump’s nominees to lead the Department of the Interior (Ryan Zinke), Department of Energy (Rick Perry) and the Environmental Protection Agency (Scott Pruitt) in particular served as early signals of a clear intention to de-regulate industry and expedite, or outright remove, environmental assessment and protection requirements tied to resource development.

Within days of taking office, the president has now signed executive orders advancing both Keystone XL and the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), while simultaneously placing an expenditure and communications freeze on the EPA.

It may now be only a matter of time before renewed attention turns to the estimated 7.7 billion barrels of ‘technically recoverable’ crude oil laying under the arctic permafrost in a coastal plain area of the wildlife refuge known as the 1002 area.

Map of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge with the 1002 in orange. Source: United States Geological Survey

“The Alaskan congressional delegation has asked that the 1002 lands be opened to development. This would impact the Porcupine Caribou herd,” Yukon Conservation Society energy analyst Sebastian Jones told DeSmog Canada. This 1002 sub-area of the ANWR also happens to be the favoured calving grounds of the Porcupine Caribou herd, particularly when snowmelt occurs earlier.

“Calving grounds for these caribou herd are very, very important,” says Dr. Justina Ray, President and Senior Scientist of the Wildlife Conservation Society of Canada and Co-Chair of the Committee on the Status Endangered Wildlife in Canada, Terrestrial Mammal Species Subcommittee.

“This is the most vulnerable time of year for this animal. They come to these places habitually year after year, and drop their calves at a time that coincides with new plant growth, so it’s perfectly matched.”

“Those first six weeks of life for calves are critical,” Ray continues. “If you have disturbance in this area, whether it’s noise from exploration or infrastructure, that could increase mortality directly or indirectly because the nutrition of the females is disturbed or they don’t even calve.”

Thanks in part to one of former President Obama’s final acts of conservation — banning oil and gas drilling in the Arctic — Trump can’t single-handedly overturn the protections currently in place for the refuge.

For this, an act of congress plus two-thirds majority vote in the Senate would be required, something Jones feels Trump won’t be able to achieve, “unless something really weird happens.”

A mother caribou from the Porcupine Caribou Herd with her young calf. Photo: Peter Mather, used with permission.

He also feels carbon emission reductions of other nations “will start to reduce demand, likely before oil could flow.”

While the impacts of potential development in the 1002 area remain hypothetical for now, Trump’s denialist view of climate change may pose a more imminent threat.

“A Trump presidency looks to be much more climate reckless,” Jones says. “Caribou are among the species most vulnerable to climate change. If tundra disappears, times will get very tough for barren ground herds like the [Porcupine], and it appears we are already seeing climate effects across the north on caribou habitat.”

What makes the potential fallout from a Trump presidency on the Porcupine Caribou particularly critical, is the impact any dramatic drop in the herd would have for the Gwich’in people of Alaska and Yukon who have relied on caribou for their subsistence for over 20,000 years.

It is the resolve and relentless efforts of the Gwich’in and others that give Jones reason for hope about the potential consequences of a Trump presidency.

“Trump and his acolytes will motivate the conservation community and users of the Porcupine Caribou herd,” Jones says. “This has proven to be a formidable coalition that has defended far more focused and competent regimes.”

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Canada’s great, white north seems to be getting a little less white as the years go by thanks to above-average increases in Arctic temperatures and increasing levels of industrial development.

Still, the north remains great, and there’s nothing more emblematic of that greatness than the astounding 1,000-kilometre seasonal migration of the region’s barren-ground caribou herds.

Named for their habitat — sprawling Arctic tundra which extends beyond the northern tree line — barren-ground caribou have experienced alarming population declines for years, according to the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC), and those declines are occurring alongside unprecedented levels of climate change and habitat disturbance.

The committee recently changed the status of barren-ground caribou herds from a species of ‘special concern’ to the more dire category of ‘threatened’ — one step away from ‘endangered.’

“These caribou are in trouble,” Justina Ray, co-chair of the Terrestrial Mammals Subcommittee with COSEWIC, a group of cross-country wildlife experts and scientists, told DeSmog Canada.

“We did a large analysis of 15 herds, which hasn’t been done before.”

Some of these far north caribou herds have experienced population losses of more than 90 per cent over recent decades, slowly caving to the layered pressures of a warmer climate, development, resource extraction and hunting.

Image: WWF Canada

Cumulative Impacts Overlooked in Project Approvals

The caribou’s threatened status comes about just as a federal panel is reviewing the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act under which major projects must seek approval.

Ray can’t help but see the link between the status of the caribou and the status of Canada’s environmental assessment laws.

“The problem for these caribou is a combination of cumulative impacts and novel disturbance — new things that are occurring in these barren ground ranges that weren’t there before,” Ray said.

The failure to connect the overall impacts of resource development and human disturbance on these travelling species is a major factor in their decline, Ray said.

“It’s very illustrative of this piecemeal decision-making,” Ray said. “No one is looking at establishing limits to that or checking in in an overarching fashion.”

Right now with major project approvals, we’re simply “chipping away one decision at a time in a way that leads to this gradual destruction.”

Ray said the recent COSEWIC review of at risk species identified a number of migratory species that are not faring well in today’s environment, including Coho salmon, Nuttall’s cottontail bunnies and monarch butterflies. 

“It really struck us, how impacted migratory species are.”

A 2013 report from the Conference Board of Canada predicted a 91 per cent increase in mining in northern Canada.

The race for resources in the north has prompted the Canadian World Wildlife Fund to campaign for revoked mining licences in caribou calving grounds.

Ray said researchers don’t know just how much development barren-ground caribou can tolerate.

“Sometimes just one new road in an area can have a disproportionate effect because it’s this novel disturbance that can be a disproportionate issue for caribou that is experiencing truck traffic, dust, etc. for the first time.”

“That can be incredibly disruptive. If you combine that with harvest, resource development, climate change and these other uncertainties, that can add a lot of pressure and stress to a caribou population over time.”

Finding a Lifeline for Canada’s Threatened Arctic Caribou https://t.co/5UQJI5G9CA #Yukon #cdnpoli

— DeSmog Canada (@DeSmogCanada) January 20, 2017

Seizing the Opportunity to Modernize Environmental Assessment

Ray recently presented to the panel, tasked with reviewing Canada’s environmental assessment process.

In her submission, Ray emphasized that, as it currently stands, the process has significant gaps when it comes to ensuring the veracity and independence of science used within the process.

For example, she said, as the legislation currently stands, there’s no procedure to guarantee the independence of science used by consultants hired by project proponents.

Ray’s concerns about the role of science in the assessment process have been echoed by numerous other academics, scientists and researchers who also made submissions to the panel.

“I think the whole process has been plagued by a lack of robust science. It’s actually a more interesting question to ask where science has been robustly assessed in a review process.”

“Even the recent federal Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline decision didn’t take into consideration what an oil spill would result in,” Ray added.

Still, if Canada gets it right, we could pave the way in the creation of a modernized assessment process, Ray said.

“We could potentially be a model for the rest of the world.”

Image: Caribou in Alaska. Photo: Paxon Woebler/Expedition Arguk via Flickr cc 2.0

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