“If it requires a subsidy, we won’t do it.”

The leader of Alberta’s United Conservative Party, Jason Kenney, has vowed that no government money will go to support the province’s renewable energy industry if he is elected when voters go to the polls this spring.

“Part of the Alberta advantage must be competitive and affordable power prices. We will not replicate the disaster of Ontario Liberal power policies that the NDP is trying to copy in Alberta,” he told reporters last week.

Kenney’s comments raise two questions: would he keep contracts already signed by Rachel Notley’s NDP government? And does Kenney recognize that renewable energy contracts look much different in Alberta than they did in Ontario?

The difference between Ontario and Alberta

After Ontario Premier Doug Ford was elected last summer, he scrapped 758 long-term contracts with renewable energy companies and set out to eliminate the province’s Green Energy Act.

The province’s feed-in tariff models had generated controversy because they gave renewable electricity producers a guaranteed rate far above the average price for electricity. The public was outraged by rates ranging from 8.5 cents per kilowatt-hour to 80 cents per kilowatt-hour for small solar photovoltaic projects.

But Ontario’s program was drastically different from Alberta’s renewable electricity program.

“The mechanism that was used in Ontario was probably not ideal,” said Andrew Leach, University of Alberta associate professor of environmental and energy economics.

Leach chaired Alberta’s climate leadership panel, which proposed policies to the NDP government when it came to power four years ago. The renewables industry subsequently became a vital part of the plan to phase out coal power by 2030.

“One of the things that changed in Alberta was going to competitive procurement. So let the market compete for who can do it most cheaply,” Leach told The Narwhal.

In the Alberta model, renewable energy companies go through a competitive bid process. The lowest viable bid price proposed wins the contract.

So far, under this model, Alberta has given the green light to 1.3 gigawatts worth of wind power.

Capital Power, an Edmonton-based company, recently won a contract for the first phase of the Whitla wind project near Medicine Hat, Alta., with a bid of 3.9 cents per kilowatt-hour.

The average pool price of electricity last year in Alberta was 5 cents per kWh. If electricity prices rise, the renewable energy generator rebates the excess to the government. If the pool price is lower than the guaranteed bid amount, the province tops up the company’s return, as per the diagram below.

Image: Alberta Electric System Operator

Recent advancements in technology have seen global renewable energy costs plummet, and Alberta is no exception. Last week, the province’s NDP government announced it was signing a 20-year contract with Ontario-based Canadian Solar Solutions Inc. to bring 100 megwatts of power online in southern Alberta, at a cost of 4.8 cents per kilowatt-hour.

To put that in context, the average cost in the province of natural gas electricity using the lowest-cost technology — before a carbon tax is factored in — is 5.4 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to the Canadian Energy Research Institute. The same data says the average cost of wind power generation in Alberta has fallen to 5.2 cents per kilowatt-hour.

Could Alberta see cancelled contracts too?

With multi-decade contracts in place, it is unclear where Kenney stands on the cancellation of contracts. He said in last week’s press conference that he would not cancel what he called “good-faith contracts.” However, his bottom line was that he would not subsidize renewables. So would he uphold contracts with a minimum-price guarantee?

When the United Conservative Party media representatives were asked for comment they said the rest of the party’s platform would be revealed in due course.

“The challenge in renewables in Alberta has been the lack of availability of long-term power purchase agreements,” said Dan Balaban, the CEO and president of Calgary-based Greengate Power. “And that’s really what the Notley government implemented through its renewable electricity program.”

Balaban says he is confident the industry will remain viable regardless of who wins the upcoming election, but he hopes the industry’s policies aren’t politicized.

Renewables ‘lowest cost source of power’

Leach speculates that Ontario’s feed-in tariff program has led to a “massive influence” over the perception of renewables in Alberta.

“I think in some ways Mr. Kenney’s comments are reflective of the impression that people have about renewables in Canada, in Alberta, in Ontario — that they’re more expensive and the only way you get them in the market at all is through large subsidies paying above-market prices for electricity.”

Balaban pointed out that growth in renewables used to be driven by environmental considerations and the need to address climate change. “But now that renewables are the lowest cost source of power generation that we have available to us, it also makes economic sense.”

Kenney did leave the door open to the growth of the renewables industry, saying “if more wind and solar can come onto the grid by competing on a market basis with other forms of power production, we’ll absolutely embrace that.”

“A lot of this stuff is right now being subsidized by the carbon tax, which we’re scrapping on Day One of the legislature. So no carbon tax [and] no subsidies for power sources and power that are higher than the market rate.”

Even without cost guarantees, Leach said it’s not likely renewables will disappear. But he said eliminating cost guarantees would make financing the initial capital investment for wind or solar farms much more challenging.

“That doesn’t mean that the project wouldn’t make money in the long term. It just means that it’s harder to finance.”

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A massive open-pit copper mine might not be the first thing that comes to mind when thinking about solar power.

But the construction of photovoltaic panels actually require a wide range of metals and minerals to build. Nineteen, to be exact, including silica, indium, silver, selenium and lead. Most can be found or produced in Canada.

And as demand for solar panels continues to rapidly increase in coming years — up to a 17-fold global increase between 2015 and 2050, according to the International Energy Agency — significant quantities of these metals and minerals will be required.

“It quickly dawns on you that an awful lot of panels go into producing all these gigawatts of solar power,” said Dan Woynillowicz, policy director at Clean Energy Canada and lead author of a recent report titled “Mining for Clean Energy,” in an interview with DeSmog Canada.

“Obviously that creates a demand for materials.”

It also creates some serious concerns about the environmental, social and cultural impacts of mining. Recent years have seen a series of mining-related disasters in Canada, most notably the devastating Mount Polley tailings dam collapse in August 2014. As a result, critics contend that mining practices must be addressed now, before demand continues to grow.

“If we don’t couple climate mitigation infrastructure with responsible mining, we’ve got a trainwreck coming,” said Alan Young, director of the Ottawa-based Materials Efficiency Research Group, in an interview with DeSmog Canada.

“We’re either going to have interruptions of supply or we’re going to build clean energy on dirty mining.”

Solar Capacity Increased By 76 Gigawatts in 2016

Solar power is growing at an exponential rate around the world.

In 2016, more than 76 gigawatts in solar photovoltaic panels were installed, increasing the global total to 305 gigawatts. Much of that growth happened in China, which added a substantial 34 gigawatts in solar capacity.

And the price only keeps falling. According to a recent report from Morgan Stanley, solar panel costs dropped another 50 per cent between 2016 and 2017.

Growth in solar capacity has been slower in Canada. The Canadian Solar Industries Association reports that by the end of 2015, the country only sported 2.5 gigawatts in capacity, almost entirely in Ontario (which introduced a feed-in tariff in 2009 to help incentivize solar installations).

But that’s changing. Canadian Solar Industries Association predicts that by 2020, Canada will have close to 6.3 gigawatts in installed solar capacity. That transition will be aided by programs like Alberta’s new $36 million rebate program for residential solar installations, as well as federally mandated carbon pricing (which will make renewables even more competitive with gas-fired power plants).

Unfortunately, nobody has figured out how to dramatically reduce the associated demand for metals and minerals. That’s already created scares about future availability of some necessary components.

That combo offers up a potentially massive opportunity for Canadian mining companies, with investors hunting for new places to profit in the wake of the global oil price crash.

KSM Mine Allowed To Proceed With Massive Tailings Dam Despite Mount Polley

It’s worth emphasizing that most critics of mining practices in Canada aren’t against mining as a practice.

Take Shannon McPhail, executive director of the Skeena Watershed Conservation Coalition. She emphasized in an interview with DeSmog Canada that she’s “a major supporter of mining.” But she wants it to be done right, ensuring environmental protections and inclusion of Indigenous nations as project partners.

“Mining has actually come a long way,” she said. “There are absolutely sustainable mining practices that can be implemented. And they’re usually not — because of the costs associated with them.”

A major problem is that laws and regulations about mining in Canada are incredibly lax. Mount Polley serves as a prime example. Despite spilling 25 million cubic metres of toxic tailings waste into nearby water bodies — representing the largest mining disaster in the country’s history — no criminal charges were laid or fines administered.

In March, federal government lawyers successfully blocked a private prosecution against Imperial Metals. Only a month later, the B.C. environment ministry gave the Mount Polley Mining Corporation the go-ahead to directly discharge tailings waste into Quesnel Lake, one of the bodies of water that was polluted in the 2014 spill.

To top it all of, the federal government has approved the use of another massive tailings pond dam at Seabridge Gold’s proposed KSM gold/copper mine in northwestern B.C., despite the expert technical panel formed after the Mount Polley disaster recommending mines move away from using wet tailings ponds to prevent future accidents.* The Red Chris copper and gold mine, located in northwestern B.C. and also owned by Imperial Metals, uses the controversial tailings dams as well.

“We’re talking hundreds of millions of tonnes of toxic material sitting up there, at the height of land, at the headwaters of rivers,” said Jamie Kneen of MiningWatch Canada in an interview with DeSmog Canada. “There are huge risks and liabilities attached to this that are not accounted for.”

Emphasis on Community Relations and Corporate Initiatives Over Government Action

The increased demand for metals and minerals resulting from the explosion of solar installations presents an excellent opportunity for that to change; Woynillowicz notes that it could mean a great deal for the sector in terms of public perception and support.

But few expect that leadership to come from government.

“I think the companies that are going to come out ahead are the ones that are ahead of the legislation,” says Rob Maurer, director at the Smithers Exploration Group. “You can’t wait for the government to make it happen. You have to be proactive, you have to work with First Nations, you have to work with NGOs and communities.”

That’s a key element.

There are plenty of technical fixes to help reduce impacts of mining: fuel switching away from using diesel for operations, using tailings management techniques like dry stacking, not approving projects that require monitoring and treatment in perpetuity. Young suggests the idea of a Forest Stewardship Council equivalent for industrial mining, which could help companies source materials that meet certain environmental standards.

But above all, it’s about proactively working with people and communities.

“There’s stuff around mining practices,” McPhail says. “There are specific laws and regulations. But really, it all starts at the community level.”

Maurer agrees: “What has to be sustainable in mining is sustainable relationships where shareholders, communities, First Nations, stakeholders.”

*UPDATED July 24, 2017, at 1:50 p.m. to clarify that it was the federal, not the provincial, government that approved KSM after the Mount Polley spill (the provincial government approved KSM before the Mount Polley disaster) and that the expert technical panel’s finding applied to all mines, not just KSM.

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Alberta’s residential solar industry has chugged along for decades without government support.

That dry spell finally drew to a close on Monday, when the provincial NDP government announced a two-year, $36 million rebate program to help bring down the costs for residents, business and nonprofits who want to install solar projects.

By 2020, the number of solar installations on rooftops is expected to increase from 1,800 to 10,000 systems, which will create about 900 jobs and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a half million tonnes (or the same as taking 100,000 cars off the road). The program is funded through the province's carbon tax revenue.

“It’s the first time individuals and businesses across the province will have support to install solar and have the independence of being able to generate their own electricity,” said Sara Hastings-Simon, the director of the Pembina Institute's clean economy program.

Rebate Program Will Pay 75 Cents Per Installed Watt, Up to 30% of Cost

The 21-minute announcement was fairly short on details, with many of the specifics being worked out by the new Energy Efficiency Alberta agency. But the news is already being heralded as a “milestone” and “very significant” by solar advocates.

“Consumers are already excited about solar,” says David Kelly, CEO of SkyFire Energy, who was at Monday’s announcement. “There’s a lot of pent-up demand: people have been waiting for a program. And the industry is ready to deliver.”

In February 2016, the provincial government announced a $5.5 million rebate plan for municipalities and farms. Demand quickly outstripped available incentive programs for such sectors; the program is expected to fund 160 projects in total.

The Solar Energy Society of Alberta estimates that a solar photovoltaic system can be installed to accommodate an average household’s electricity demand — estimated at 7,200 kilowatt hours (kWh) per year — for about $18,000. The initial cost can be a deterrent for residential and business owners.

That’s where the new rebate program will come in, significantly reducing the payback period (cutting the current 15 to 20 year payback timeframe by about 30 per cent).

Minister of Environment and Climate Change Shannon Phillips, who announced the news on Monday, noted in the press conference that the rebate program will allow for rebates of 75 cents per installed watt, up to 30 per cent of total solar installation costs for residential and 25 per cent of solar installation costs for businesses and nonprofits.

Kelly notes that such figures aren’t as generous as some other jurisdictions. But that’s a good thing, he suggests, as you don’t want to “create a gold rush mentality for solar.”

Alberta Aims to Generate 30% of Electricity Via Renewables by 2030

It might sound a bit counterintuitive. But it’s something that Rob Harlan, executive director of the Solar Energy Society of Alberta, explains is necessary to prevent problems around quality and safety due to the industry expanding too quickly.

“Traditional electrical training doesn’t include a lot about solar technology yet,” he says. “Electricians need to have a little bit of additional training to do these systems well. If it becomes too lucrative too soon, you get a lot of sales and marketing people dominating the industry.”

The rebate program is just a small part of the province’s push to green its energy system, with the overall target of a complete phase-out of coal-fired power and 30 per cent renewable generation by 2030.

Larger solar projects have also become increasingly popular; the “connection queue” for the Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO) hit 681 megawatts (MW) in September, and 1,453 MW in December.

That doesn’t guarantee that proponents will follow through with the project, but is certainly represents a solid measure of interest.

Hastings-Simon says the new rebate program will also benefit people who don’t choose to install solar, as it will reduce costly electricity generation during peak times and the need to build new transmission infrastructure.

More Can Be Done to Encourage Microgeneration, Advocates Say

In late December, the province amended the legislation on microgeneration, or small-scale generation for personal consumption, with excess power sold back to the grid.

The tweaks included increasing the size limit (from one MW to five MW) and allowing for solar systems to connect to adjacent sites (as opposed to having to be literally on the roof of the consumer). But some advocates suggest the micro-generation regulation be further amended to allow for the potential growth of residential solar.

“Right now, the microgeneration law limits system size to your past year’s consumption,” Harlan says. “We’d like to see that lifted. It’s important to limit system size by things like fuses, conductors and transformers: basic safety and technological issues. But why not allow somebody who has a commercial building with a large roof to sell it with solar modules and help clean Alberta’s grid?”

Pembina’s Hastings-Simon agrees, noting that it would be hugely helpful to make it possible to size systems larger than the load they’re immediately connected to.

That would mean that someone wanted to build a solar project with their neighbours, they could build it a central nearby location even if it’s not directly connected to each of their houses (but is instead connected via the distribution grid). In addition, “virtual net metering” would allow someone to have “virtual ownership of a solar panel” with credit applied to your electricity bill.

“Those are some of the things that help community solar take off,” she says.

#Alberta Advantage: Solar Rebates Give Homeowners a Boost https://t.co/4jHLDiB5IA @james_m_wilt #ableg #cdnpoli #solarpower @GridWorksEnergy pic.twitter.com/1iPvJnBqei

— DeSmog Canada (@DeSmogCanada) March 1, 2017

Solar Rebates Available by Mid-April

The next step for the rebate program is a Request for Proposal to identify a third party contractor to administer the program.

Minister Phillips emphasized in the press conference that projects will have to meet program requirements, with the details established by the agency this spring; she said it’s on the consumer to figure out if their building is a good fit for solar, solicit multiple bids from companies and do due diligence “to protect themselves as consumers.”

She added that people will be able to register for the program by mid-April, and that rebates will be retroactive to that time.

“It was a little short on details but it sounds, from what they spoke about and what was in the press release, that it’s going to be fairly comprehensive,” Kelly concludes.

Image: Alberta Minister of Environment Shannon Phillips participates in a solar demonstration at Gridworks Solar Energy Training Centre. Photo: Government of Alberta via Flickr CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

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A cute graphic of white houses with rooftop solar panels is featured on the U.S. Department of Energy’s website. “Solar Homes Sell for More Money,” the government tells viewers, citing studies that show solar adds an average US$15,000 to the resell value of a home.

“Just like a renovated kitchen or a finished basement increases a home’s value, solar has been shown to boost home valuation and shorten a home’s time on the market.”

In contrast to the U.S. government’s cheery promotion of solar, BC Hydro’s webpage called “Solar Power & Heating for Your Home” has a blurry photograph of a man putting on a sweater, and technical information that begins with the somber news that it will take a B.C. homeowner at least 20 years to recoup the cost of a solar installation.

“Do your research on the practicality of going solar in B.C.,” advises the webpage.

The practicality of going solar in B.C. turns out to be quite gloomy compared to jurisdictions like the U.S. and Ontario, where supportive government policies have fueled a recent explosion in the use and widespread benefits of solar.

Screenshot of BC Hydro’s webpage on solar energy in B.C. 

New solar in Ontario generates 2,400 megawatts of electricity for the common grid, more than double the electricity that B.C.’s Site C hydro dam will produce at a projected cost of $8.8 billion and an environmental price tag the Royal Society of Canada says is both unprecedented and alarming.

In approximately the same timeframe since the B.C. government announced plans to build Site C in 2010, Ontario’s solar industry has also created 5,000 full-time jobs at a “minimal” cost to ratepayers, according to the Canadian Solar Industries Association.

Not only has Ontario become Canada’s solar leader but it is now the third largest solar jurisdiction in North America after California and Arizona, not known for their cloudy days.

“In 2009, there was virtually no solar in Ontario,” John Gorman, President and CEO of the Canadian Solar Industries Association told DeSmog. “It was a question of political will to put the policies in place.”

The political will to promote solar has also reaped astonishing results for both the economy and the environment in the United States, where solar policies implemented by the Obama administration recently achieved a national milestone of one million solar-powered homes.

The American solar industry now employs 209,000 workers, eight per cent of them armed forces veterans. Adding to that sunny economic news, the number of jobs in American solar has increased by 20 per cent in each of the past three years alone, and continues to grow.

Is B.C.’s Tunnel Vision Forcing out #SolarPower? https://t.co/yDPa9KOzvA #bcpoli #cdnpoli #renewables

— DeSmog Canada (@DeSmogCanada) August 24, 2016

Solar’s impressive ability to create lasting employment in Ontario and the U.S. compares favourably to the 10,000 jobs promised during Site C’s construction phase by B.C. Premier Christy Clark, who touts job creation as one of the primary reasons to build the dam but often sidesteps the fact that most Site C jobs will be relatively short-term.

Clark’s single-minded focus on Site C as an energy source has drawn sharp rebuke from the heads of the Canadian Wind Energy Association and the Canadian Geothermal Energy Association, who say the decision to build Site C has curtailed development of their industries in B.C. and, with it, prospects to create lasting jobs in clean energy.

Gorman said the potential of solar in B.C. also remains virtually untapped, even though neighbouring Alberta and Saskatchewan are now poised to follow Ontario’s lead and embrace policies to grow their solar industries significantly.

“B.C. is just, to the best of my knowledge, not pursuing solar electricity aggressively or contemplating it in any serious way.”

BC Hydro told the Joint Review Panel that examined Site C for the federal and provincial governments that solar was “economically unfeasible.” But Gorman said solar has proven to be an excellent investment not just in Ontario and the U.S. but all over the world.

“That’s just plainly false,” he said of the statement that solar is economically unfeasible, pointing out that in some jurisdictions solar is now cheaper even than coal-fired power, traditionally one of the cheapest and dirtiest forms of energy.

In just five years, the price of solar in Ontario has dropped by 70 per cent, and the retail cost of solar is now cheaper than other electricity, said Gorman. Another 600 to 700 megawatts of solar power are already under construction in Ontario or have been procured. “Our solar is still higher cost than many jurisdictions in the United States, but relative to where we started we’re making huge progress.”

When contacted by DeSmog, B.C. Energy Ministry spokesperson Suntanu Dalal referred questions about government solar policy to BC Hydro. BC Hydro media spokesperson Kevin Aquino did not return two calls from DeSmog requesting clarification of BC Hydro’s statement that solar is not economically feasible in B.C., and asking for details about solar policy.

In a notable departure from the 20 to 25 years BC Hydro says it would take B.C. homeowners to recoup an investment in solar panels, Gorman says Ontario homeowners need only seven years to earn back the $15,000 cost of a typical home solar installation.

And then the news gets even brighter if you go solar in Ontario. After paying back the cost of installing solar panels, average homeowners can pocket profits of approximately $2,000 a year for supplying solar energy to the grid, Gorman confirmed.

Despite a comparative lack of incentive to go solar in B.C., hundreds of B.C. home and business owners have installed solar panels to replace or ratchet down their use of hydro, using BC Hydro’s net metering program to provide extra energy to the grid.

One of those homeowners is Hudson’s Hope hotel manager and beekeeper Guy Armitage, who will be compelled to leave the home he shares with his wife and elderly father as a result of the Site C dam.

One of 70 Peace Valley landowners affected by the dam, Armitage will lose part of his property to Site C’s reservoir, which will permanently flood more than 100 kilometres of the heritage Peace River and its tributaries.

To demonstrate his belief that Site C’s power is not needed, in 2014 Armitage covered the roof of his south-facing bungalow with 50 solar panels at a cost of $43,000, including about $12,500 for installation. During the first full year his solar system was operational, the panels provided all the electricity his family required. Armitage even received a $758 cheque from BC Hydro for selling his surplus power to the grid.

“It was a statement about Site C,” Armitage said of his decision to go solar. “Solar is the map of the future. They’re doing it all over the world. But we’re locked into hydro here.”

If Armitage lived in Ontario, his cost to go solar could be significantly reduced, in part because the province has adopted what Gorman calls the “European model” for solar, embraced by almost 70 per cent of solar jurisdictions around the world.

In Ontario, similar to policies in Europe, homeowners can sign 20-year contracts with the province’s utility company that guarantee a set rate for their electricity.

By comparison, net metering clients like Armitage sell only extra energy to the grid. And Gorman points out that net metering does not fully value the electricity that solar contributes to the grid, because it is based on average electricity rates rather than higher electricity rates during the daytime, when solar kicks in.

Across the border in the U.S., 41 states have net metering policies and the government actively promotes borrowing tools that “unlock new ways to go solar” through special financing programs and other initiatives.

These include a federal tax credit that refunds 30 per cent of the cost of installing a solar system, solar energy loans with below-market interest rates, and the opportunity to slash household energy bills by leasing rooftop solar energy systems owned by solar companies.

This year, the U.S. government invested US$241 million in the SunShot Energy Initiative, which funds initiatives aimed at making the cost of solar competitive with traditional forms of energy by the end of the decade.

Since SunShot’s inception in 2011, the price of U.S. solar has dropped by one-half, according to Acting SunShot Director Rebecca Jones-Albertus.

“In 20 years, solar will be ubiquitous in the U.S. and will provide a significant fraction of our nation’s electricity as a clean, secure, inexpensive electricity source,” Jones-Albertus told DeSmog. “Our children will have solar available as a standard feature when shopping for their first home, much like central air or granite countertops are today.”

By 2050, solar is expected to supply 27 per cent of power in the U.S., in keeping with the International Energy Association declaration that solar can meet one-quarter of the world’s energy needs by 2050.

“Solar energy is key to achieving the nation’s climate goals while bringing economic development and energy security to our local communities,” said Jones-Albertus.

In contrast to the U.S. Department of Energy’s website, which provides easily accessible and detailed information about the logistics and benefits of going solar, the B.C. Energy Ministry’s website has a small section on renewable energy containing only a brief blurb about geothermal and not a word about solar.

B.C.’s largest solar facility, Kimberly’s SunMine, was constructed on the site of the former Sullivan lead and zinc mine owned by mining giant Teck. The project received $1 million from the B.C. government’s Innovative Clean Energy Fund.

This year, however, solar was not on the list when Premier Clark dished out $11.9 million from the Innovative Clean Energy Fund for “clean energy vehicles, clean air and clean water.” The majority of the fund went to help consumers purchase electric vehicles worth up to $77,000 apiece, a move lauded by the New Car Dealers Association of B.C.

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Clean energy investment surged to $497 billion worldwide in 2015 while in Canada investment in renewables experienced a massive 46 per cent plunge to around $5.4 billion, according to a new report released Monday by Clean Energy Canada.

Global investment is up from a total of $420 billion in 2014 with nearly one-third of of new investments occurring in China. Spending on renewables increased in the U.S. by seven per cent, in India by 23 per cent and in Mexico by 114 per cent.    “Canada’s performance was out of step with its peers in 2015,” Clare Demerse, senior policy adviser at Clean Energy Canada, told DeSmog Canada. "This should be a wakeup call, although we hope this is a one-off and not the start of a trend."

Cheaper technology can partially account for the drop in investments in Canada. In the U.S., for example, over the last six years the unsubsidized cost of wind energy went down 61 per cent and 82 per cent for utility-scale solar PV. 

The amount of money invested in Canadian clean energy may have been cut in half last year, but the construction of new renewable energy projects only slowed by 30 per cent, according to Clean Energy Canada.   “When you couple [clean energy's] declining costs with free fuel from the wind, sun, water, biomass and the earth’s heat, you have a formula for ever increasing competitiveness with fossil fuels,” the report states.

Source: Clean Energy Canada, 2016

Uncertain Clean Energy Policy in Canada Played a Role

Imprecise policies and a lack of clean energy regulation created uncertainty for investors in Canada, the report finds.   “Pipelines trumped power lines as a national priority,” it concludes.

Canada has no national climate framework or greenhouse gas regulations for the oil and gas sector. The bulk of Canada's climate action in recent years has emerged at the provincial level.   “In the longstanding absence of federal climate leadership, provinces led the charge," Demerse told DeSmog Canada. But, she added, "some of the provinces that are big players in clean energy were rethinking policies in 2015. Uncertainty is hard on investors.” 

British Columbia, a province praised in recent years for its world-class carbon tax, is investing heavily in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export industry as well as the major Site C hydrodam. A recent review of B.C.'s Climate Action Plan found the province is unlikely to meet its climate targets. 

Ontario, Canada’s leader in wind power, confirmed it will spend over $25 billion on refurbishing aging nuclear reactors to clean up the province’s electrical grid instead of doubling down on domestic renewable energy or importing relatively cheap water power from Quebec.   However, some progress on provincial climate policies was made at the end of 2015.   Ontario and Manitoba both announced they are joining North America’s largest carbon market by linking up with the Quebec-California cap-and-trade system. A new Alberta government unveiled plans to phase out coal, cap oilsands emissions and introduce a carbon tax. Saskatchewan also set admirable renewable energy targets, which aim to have half of the province's electricity coming from renewable sources by 2050.

According to Clean Energy Canada these provincial targets need to be translated into clear policy to boost investment in the sector. 

Canada’s Clean Energy Potential Barely Scratched 

“Canada is incredibly well positioned for clean energy success,” Demerse told DeSmog. "Yes, we may have the third largest oil reserve in the world, but we are also the third biggest producer of hydroelectricity. And we have the potential to do so much more with our clean energy resources."

Demerse believes this week’s national climate strategy meeting between the federal government, Indigenous leaders and the premiers is the perfect opportunity to lay the foundation for a clean energy plan for Canada. 

“The new federal government can do a lot to change this. Adopting real, meaningful clean energy targets would provide more certainty for investors,” Demerse said.   According to a groundbreaking study led by Stanford Engineering Professor Mark Jacobson that examines how countries can run off of 100 per cent renewable energy by 2050 , Canada has only begun to scratch the surface of its ‘clean energy superpower’ potential.

  Canada's energy mix in 2050 according to Jacobson's analysis. Source: The Solutions Project.

“The main barriers to getting to 100 per cent clean energy are social and political, not technical or economic,” Jacobson said during a climate and energy forum in Washington, D.C., last November.   Canada already generates roughly 60 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources and this is nearly all from hydroelectricity or waterpower. By comparison, Germany produced just over 30 per cent of its electricity from renewable energy in 2015, which was mostly from wind, solar and biomass. Canada has one of the world’s cleanest electrical grids.   But currently, non-water based renewables like wind and solar make up a mere three per cent of the electricity Canada generates.   The Stanford study projects solar and wind could make up 21 per cent and 58 per cent respectively of all of Canada’s required energy by 2050. Waterpower in Jacobson's 2050 scenario becomes the junior partner to wind and solar at 16.5 per cent of the total Canadian energy mix. The study's authors conclude there is no need to build additional hydro dams like the Site C dam in B.C. or continue with nuclear power generation.

Image Credit: NAIT via Flickr 

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A record US$367 billion was invested in renewable energy in 2015, according to a new report out today by the Clean Energy Canada initiative of the Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser University.

Renewables investment increased by seven percent since 2014, with China, the US, and Japan representing more than half of the total investment last year, shows the report.

The report also finds that for the first time, more money was invested in clean energy than in new power from fossil fuel ($253bn).

This unprecedented scale of investment is particularly remarkable given the significant drop in oil prices over the last year.

“Turmoil in fossil fuel markets led many analysts to suggest clean energy investment would similarly stall out. How could renewable energy possibly compete with cheap oil, gas and coal?” asks the report.

As it explains: “New clean energy deals were widely expected to stall last year as the price of oil and other fossil fuels declined around the world. Instead, growth in the clean energy sector beat expectations, delivering the best year yet.”

Lower Costs

According to the report, declining technology and financing costs have helped to spur growth in renewable energy. For example, between 2009 and 2015 the cost of wind power in the US dropped 61 percent, while the cost of solar power fell 82 percent.

Much of the speculation was the result of a lack of understanding of renewable energy technology, trends and markets, explained Dan Woynillowicz, policy director at Clean Energy Canada.

While renewable energy competes head to head with natural gas (unlike with oil) “it has a range of attributes that make it attractive,” said Woynillowicz, “energy security, zero air pollution, price certainty, zero carbon, etc.”

Woynillowicz continued: “Renewable energy costs keep falling – and will keep falling – and the long-view suggests they will outcompete natural gas.”

“It’s also worth noting,” he added, “that as the costs fall, it means we get more energy for every dollar invested. So if investment remains stable or increases, we’ll see greater amounts of renewable energy actually deployed.”

Globally, wind power deployment led the way last year, up 31 percent since 2014 with nearly 64 GW installed, with deployment in solar power growing 23 percent.

“The fuel – sun, wind, water – is free,” Merran Smith, executive director of Clean Energy Canada, said in a statement. “There’s no wonder clean energy is gaining momentum around the world.”

“Clean energy is taking off because it offers value that can’t be beat – it’s local, so it offers energy security. It’s a climate solution. It reduces health issues from smog. It’s increasingly competitive, and there’s big money to be made.”

Developing Countries

Last year also marked the first time that developing countries saw more investment in renewable energy ($167bn) than developed nations ($162bn).

India took fifth place for the most clean energy investment in 2015 ($10.9bn) behind China ($110.5bn), the US ($56bn), Japan ($43.bn), and the UK ($23.4bn). Meanwhile, renewable investment in Canada dropped 46 percent from $7.4bn in 2014 to $4bn last year.

As the report describes, 2015 saw a “geographical broadening of clean energy as more developing countries got in on the action.”

Between 2014 and 2015 investment in clean energy in Africa and the Middle East grew 54 percent, up £13.4bn.

Going forward, the report predicts that both of these regions have “significant” potential for clean energy growth due to their growing populations and abundance of wind and solar resources.

Woynillowicz also expects the “staggering rate of investment and deployment” in China to continue. Meanwhile India, which has set aggressive renewable energy targets, will also be one to watch, but Woynillowicz asks: “Will they prove effective and efficient in attracting and deploying capital?”

Going Mainstream

With more than a third of a trillion dollars invested worldwide in renewables last year, Clean Energy Canada is optimistic, stating that “clean energy is going mainstream.”

“That’s serious money,” Smith writes in the report. “Clean energy has real momentum and the commitments underpinning the Paris Agreement on climate change will keep that momentum going.”

The report’s findings are “very encouraging” agreed Woynillowicz, “especially recognising that we saw a third of a trillion invested before the Paris agreement.”

We should expect to see more money being driven into renewables over the next few years Woynillowicz predicts, due to the continued increase in cost competitiveness of renewables and progress in reducing costs of energy storage technologies, combined with the climate benefits of renewables and goals set in the Paris Agreement.

Photo: Tony Webster via Flickr

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An interactive map released Monday by the Pembina Institute creates a visual of B.C’s 14,000 jobs in clean energy.

The B.C. Clean Energy Jobs Map quantifies the number of jobs from 156 renewable energy projects including wind and solar power, run-of-river hydro, large hydro, biomass and biogas. Fifteen per cent of the projects are currently under construction. Large hydro provides the most jobs (5,800), followed by biomass and biogas (4,400), run-of-river hydro (2,600) and wind and solar (1,300).

 “Clean energy is a real success story, employing thousands of British Columbians in communities across the province,” said Aaron Ekman, secretary-treasurer of the B.C. Federation of Labour. “Smart, targeted policies will help generate even more of these family-supporting, career-track jobs across British Columbia. The future economic health of our province depends on a strategy that will put more dots on this map.”

“In First Nations communities, these long-term and meaningful jobs are needed,” said Judith Sayers, a strategic advisor to the Hupacasath First Nation, a leader in renewable energy.

On a per capita basis, the highest concentration of clean energy jobs are found in northeastern B.C., a region that is typically prone to the pain of boom-and-bust economic cycles.

“Good well-paying clean energy jobs are situated in all parts of B.C., from its biggest cities to its most remote communities,” said Paul Kariya, executive director of Clean Energy B.C. “The map gives a glimpse of a future in which all of us are working together … to come up with resilient energy solutions that just makes sense.”

In a press release, the Pembina Institute said the clean energy sector is often overlooked as an economic driver relative to fossil fuel industries in the province.

“As the world’s economies look to rapidly reduce carbon pollution, we want to make sure B.C. is well positioned to remain competitive,” said Penelope Comette, the director of Pembina’s clean energy economy program. “Policies that support the development of our clean energy economy will help to future-proof B.C. and enable us to thrive in a low-carbon world.”

The clean energy jobs map is the first of many — other maps will examine B.C.’s entire clean energy economy, including jobs associated with energy efficiency, green buildings and clean transportation technologies and services.

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Last week, in my quest to see whether British Columbia could become a 100 per cent renewable energy region, I looked at personal transportation. This week I take on the far more challenging task of long-distance trucking, boats, ferries and planes.

Ponder this: a typical eighteen-wheeler truck has a 400-horse-power engine. It burns stored solar energy from ancient, 300-million-year-old marine organisms. If you used horses to pull that much load, you’d need 400 of them, and 400 hectares of land to keep the horses pastured.[view:in_this_series=block_1]

Which is Better: Slaves, Horses or Fossil Fuels?

Alternatively, you could use 4,000 humans—and a hundred overseers with whips to keep them pulling. Maybe this is why slavery was so common before we discovered the concentrated energy of fossil fuels—the true ‘concentrated solar.’ Any particular coalmine, gas-field or oil-well might embody twenty million years of stored solar radiation, and we are exhausting it in twenty years, giving an effective solar concentration rate of fifty thousand: releasing a million years of accumulated carbon ever year.

Using this incredible supply of energy, we have been able to develop our modern world with its highly advanced science and engineering, its automated factories and its global transportation network, shipping vast quantities of stuff around the world.

Holland, with 17 million people, ships 1.6 billion tonnes of cargo a year, half by road and a third by water—all using fossil fuels. That’s a hundred tonnes (seven shipping containers) per person per year. If B.C. (with 4.6 million people) has a similar consumption pattern, we are shipping 460 million tonnes of cargo a year.

So the challenge of making British Columbia a 100 per cent renewable energy region has a huge cultural dimension, as well as a fuel dimension.

How much stuff do we really need to consume?

How much stuff do we really need to consume? 20 per cent? 50 per cent? With our current shopping habits we are literally consuming the planet to pieces, turning GDP into Gross Depletion of the Planet.

• How much less stuff would we need if we embraced a sharing economy, with shared vehicles, shared food gardens, and shared tools and equipment?
• How much less raw material would we need if we made an all-out effort to convert B.C.’s economy into a circular economy, with zero waste, and 100 per cent recyclability for everything we buy?
• Could 3-D printing reduce the amount of global trade and usher in a more localized economy? In China, a company has 3-D printed an entire house using cement and construction wastes for just $5,000. The future might see the 3-D printing of furniture, office supplies, medical supplies, prosthetic limbs, machine tools, play equipment, boats, shoes—even aircraft wings, propellers and small fuselages.
• Could we build a zero-growth economy that meets our fundamental needs, while still enabling people to increase their happiness and fulfillment?
• Would a 4-day working week help us get there?
• Would we consume less if we had a change to more cooperative ownership of businesses, more B Corporations, and more cooperative, values-based banking, which might be less driven to make us buy, buy, buy?
• Or do we simply need far more affordable housing, so that people would not need to work so hard stoking the economy simply to pay the monthly rent or mortgage?   

These are all important questions that we need to ponder. I am not aware of any study that looks at all these factors together. If one has been done, please let me know.

The 100 per cent renewable energy problem

So now I’ll put my BCSEA hat on and explore the technical dimension of the problem: how can we switch B.C.’s freight transportation from diesel and gasoline to 100 per cent renewable energy?

Some local urban delivery could go electric right now, using electric cargo bikes. In Europe, Cycle Logistics has estimated that 51 per cent of Europe’s city freight could be shipped by bike. For heavier loads, a Smith Newton electric truck can carry up to 12 tonnes, with a 150 kilometres range.

As soon as we move out of the city, however, we run into major challenges. There are many ways to make trucks more fuel efficient, and trucking companies can engage in load-sharing and freight-matching to reduce mileage—20 per cent of the trucks on Germany’s roads travel empty, and maybe it’s the same here in B.C. A University of Arkansas research project estimates that one-in-six trucks could be taken off the road with no loss in utility.

Can rail take the freight?

Clearly, electrified railways could be a partial solution, and with less use of coal, rail capacity would be freed up. In Canada, coal accounts for 13 per cent of rail freight traffic; in America, it is an incredible 44 per cent of the annual tonnage. Eighty per cent of Canada’s coal is exported from Vancouver’s North Shore and Roberts Bank terminals, and from Prince Rupert, and when B.C. no longer exports coal there will be capacity freed up along the routes. For every destination to which rail can carry freight, however, there are dozens of destinations to which it can’t.

So could we lay new electrified railway tracks alongside flat highway routes? It is really unlikely.

Alongside rail, there are three possibilities for using 100 per cent renewable transportation energy for trucking: 

Will it be hydrogen?

There is a strong consensus that regular cars and light trucks will be electric, but that does not apply to heavy-duty trucks. Mark Jacobson and his team at The Solutions Project at Stanford University, California have mapped out how every state in the U.S. could achieve 100 per cent renewable energy using sun, wind and water. They are assuming the use of hydrogen for long-distance trucking, using renewable electricity to generate the hydrogen by splitting water, which is then used in a fuel cell to generate electricity for an electric drive. (Most of today’s hydrogen is derived from natural gas, which is clearly not a renewable solution).

Using hydrogen requires three times more electricity than direct electric drive, but the technology is known, and on-site electrolysis, which is already happening in Holland, California and sixteen other states in the U.S. would eliminate the need to ship or pipe hydrogen around the province. Every truck would need to be a fuel cell truck, however, which makes it far more complex than biofuel, which works with existing vehicles. 

Blue Fuel, a B.C. company linked to Aeolis, one of B.C.’s major wind energy companies, knowing how much wind energy potential there is in the northeast of the province, has developed a partnership with Siemens Canada to create the world’s largest hydrogen electrolysis infrastructure on 400 hectares of land near Chetwynd, with a view to producing green hydrogen.

Will it happen? Many people have written off hydrogen because they think about cars, not trucks, and the car of the future is clearly electric. Joe Romm, who is extremely knowledgeable on practical responses to climate change, says Tesla Trumps Toyota—but for trucking, hydrogen may yet be the answer.

Will it be biofuel?

First generation biofuel, such as ethanol made from corn, requires the use of good farmland, and its production is so carbon intensive that it hardly reduces greenhouse gas emissions at all. Corn ethanol is seen by some as being part of the problem, not the solution.

The holy grail is second generation cellulosic biofuel made from switchgrass, corn stover (the leaves and stalk of maize crops), wood wastes, wheat straw or municipal wastes, but the reality has lagged far behind the hopes. In the U.S., instead of a billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol being produced by 2013, as mandated, progress has been really slow, and production was a thousand times less than required at under a million gallons.

Hopes for the production of biofuel from algae have withered, too. To make it productive, algae needs a constant stream of CO2—and if it comes from fossil fuels, via carbon capture, fossil carbon will still be released when the algae fuel is burnt. Effective progress in the algae direction is almost zero, as we learnt from Dr. John Benemann in our BCSEA Webinar in 2013.

In Finland, which has extensive forest coverage, their Roadmap to a Renewable Methane Economy envisions biomethane from municipal and forest wastes as providing 60 per cent of the fuel for heavy road transport by 2050, the rest coming from electricity (5 per cent), hydrogen (10 per cent) and bio-dimethyl ether (20 per cent). The Finnish Biogas Association estimates that there is enough available biomethane from wastes to cover 40 per cent of total transportation needs, including 60 per cent for trucking.

There is also another approach that may work. BioRoot Energy, based in Montana, has a technology that can make higher mixed alcohol biofuel from any kind of waste, including municipal solid waste, sewage sludge, construction debris, industrial waste, liquid waste and woody biomass waste, using a rotary kiln gasifier to convert the waste into a liquid fuel and a slag residue, yielding syngas that is then converted into a liquid fuel for use in any vehicle. Plastic wastes will release fossil carbon, but biogenic wastes will not.

Or will it be direct electric drive?

The third possibility is that there will be sufficient advances in electric drive and battery technology to make long-distance electric trucking possible, using one of five possible recharging possibilities: plug-in ultrafast charging, battery switching, overhead charging through wires, dynamic in-motion charging from the road below, or stationary inductive charging from above.

Ultrafast charging for larger vehicles is already happening in Geneva, Switzerland, where the multinational corporation ABB is rolling out a 400 kw 15-second flash-charge at bus-stops on large capacity electric buses. In Britain, there’s a trial happening in Milton Keynes, with buses driving a 24-kilometre route that includes two 120 kw stationary recharging strips. ABB feels confident that the future of mobility is electric—but will it extend to trucks?

Battery switching is another possibility, demonstrated by Tesla to be quicker for a car than refueling at a gas station. Might a future electric truck pull into a pit-stop and switch to a new battery while the driver relaxes over coffee?

Overhead cabling seems unlikely due to the long rural distances that truckers need to drive in addition to highway travel. In Sweden, Volvo is developing a magnetic resonance system that enables a truck to charge up as it drives along the road, but widespread adoption would run into the same problem as overhead cabling—the need for universal, country-wide coverage. Trucks in B.C. need to get to Prince Rupert and Fort St. John, as well as Hope and Nanaimo. Maybe engineers will design an electric truck of the future that can recharge through all three means: rapid ultra-charging, in-road charging and battery swap.

Which will it be?

Electric technology for long-distance trucking is the least developed, but progress in battery technology is happening far faster than progress in hydrogen or biofuels. If you hear that Tesla’s Elon Musk is investing in a trucking company, that might be a smart time to invest.

Biofuel is a complex field with various fuel pathways, some of which seem to be going nowhere while others promise progress. Its big advantage is that it can be used by the existing fleet; the downside is the slow speed of progress.

Hydrogen for fuel cell electric drive is a proven technology, but it requires the large-scale production of renewable electricity to make the hydrogen, and an entire fleet of new hydrogen trucks, such as the Tyrano, which Vision Motor Corp., based in California, is making.

It will be one of the three—but trucking is a transcontinental affair, and B.C. could never get there alone. There are a host of initiatives that a lively government that was committed to the cause could initiate or join. B.C.’s universities could push ahead on the technology; the provincial government could work with California, Oregon and Washington State in the Pacific Coast Collaborative to make renewable energy trucking a priority; we could host a major conference on the future of trucking to identify the problem and explore the solutions. It’s all better than nothing, which is the government’s current approach.

Ferries, boats, and ocean shipping

The same basket of choices applies to water and air transportation. Simon Fawkes of Blue Coral Charters operates the Aerial Sea, a 42’ sailing catamaran. In July 2014 they crossed the Strait of Georgia on 2 kw of solar electric power with a team of students from York University’s Faculty of Environmental Studies. Another catamaran, the 115 ft. Planet Solar, with a massive 20 kw solar system, is currently cruising the Mediterranean at 5 knots as part of a world tour. In Bristol, England, a 12 passenger 12 kW hydrogen fuel celled boat is cruising local waters.

But what about B.C. Ferries, or the big contained ships? In Japan, the NYK Group is planning a futuristic container ship: the Super Eco Ship 2030 will be powered by hydrogen fuel cells, wind, and up to 9 MW of superconductive solar, and be packed full of innovations.

To make the hydrogen, it will use liquefied natural gas, since no-one has found a way to do electrolysis at sea, which needs a constant flow of renewable electricity. If there was a battery breakthrough sufficient to carry a ship across the ocean, it would not need hydrogen. One alternative might be to use a biofuel as the source for the hydrogen. As planned, the ship will achieve a 70 per cent fall in carbon emissions.

B.C. Ferries, meanwhile, has just ordered three new ferries from Poland which will be designed to run on natural gas as well as diesel. No progress there.

In 2012, the Dutch consultancy group EcoFys studied the use of different biofuels for the European Maritime Safety Agency. They looked at tankers and container ships, ferries and cruise ships, and found that it was technically possible, and that there was a market. The barriers were regulatory and policy-related.

Europe has a Renewable Fuels Directive, for instance, which requires that 20 per cent of all energy must be renewable by 2020; but it needs to apply to ship bunkering parties, as well as to energy suppliers. If a future Canadian government gathered up the political courage to bring in a similar directive, it would have a very forceful effect on development.  

Flying into a green future on…what?

So far, most bets for future green flying are on biofuel, with many major airlines doing trials for biofuel feedstocks such as cellulosic crops, algae, camelina, jatropha, municipal solid waste, and halophytes, which can live on salt water irrigation in a desert environment. CNN reports that “since aviation biofuel was approved for use in 2011, more than 1,500 commercial flights have been powered by a blend of traditional fuel and biofuels,” and there have also been 100 per cent biofuel flights. The Sustainable Aviation Biofuels Users Group lists a lot of famous aviation names—but is the commitment really there?

In summary, this is not an easy game. But nor were electric vehicles, ten years ago. I am totally confident that the change will happen. There are at least 193 truck manufacturers in the world, including two Canada: Hino, whose Woodstock assembly plant makes Japanese trucks; and Paccar, based in St-Therese, Quebec, which makes Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF trucks.

 When it comes to alternative fuels, Paccar looks to biodiesel and natural gas, and Hino has developed a diesel-electric hybrid truck which leads the world. Will Hino/Toyota produce the breakthrough all-electric or all-hydrogen heavy-duty truck? Or will biofuels prevail? Only time will tell.

Next Week: In Part 4 I will explore the all-important question—what will it take to make it happen?

This series originally appeared on the B.C. Sustainable Energy Association website.

Image Credit: Planet Solar cuts through the Corinth Canal via Instagram.

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They’re doing it in Germany: 140 regions of the country have set a goal to become 100 per cent renewable energy regions, covering 30 per cent of Germany’s land and 26 per cent of her people, as we learnt in the June.

Could British Columbia do the same? The climate emergency warnings are dire, and the need is great. When viewed historically, it is clear that the age of fossil fuels represents only the tiniest blip of time. Deep down, we know we need to stop using them.

Here in B.C., 80 per cent of our greenhouse gas emissions—the direct cause of climate change—come from burning fossil fuels, so it’s clear that a transition is needed.

So let’s embark on a mental exercise to see what it might involve. Would the transition away from fossil fuels fatally weaken B.C.’s economy, as some conservative thinkers fear? Worse yet, would it drag us back to the dark ages? Are the fear-mongers right? These are important questions to address.[view:in_this_series=block_1]

This week, I’ll look at electricity and heat. Next week, I’ll tackle transportation.

Electricity—the Easy Part

In British Columbia, we use fossil fuels for three main purposes—electricity, heat and transportation. We are fortunate when it comes to electricity, for our power supply is already 95 per cent renewable, thanks (for better or worse) to B.C.’s big dams, coupled with run-of-river and wind power. The solar revolution will soon reach B.C., and several regions of the province are blessed with great wind, so there will be no problem filling the gap, even when demand increases to cater for a growing population driving a million electric vehicles. More on this later.

The Burrard Thermal Generating Station in Vancouver, which burns gas, is scheduled for closure, and BC Hydro’s two other smaller gas-fired generators at Prince Rupert and Fort Nelson could be phased out. There is also a 275 MW gas-fired generation plant in Campbell River, owned by Capital Power, which could be phased out when its contract with BC Hydro ends in 2022.

We waste a lot of electricity, too, which means we could save it if we wanted to: the average home in B.C. uses 11,000 kilowatt hours a year, which more than twice the average in Britain (4,600 kwh) and three times the German average (3,500 kwh).

Heat for Buildings—the Complicated Part

The next challenge is to substitute renewable energy for the oil and gas we use to heat our homes, and to provide process heat for industry.

In Victoria, Mark and Rob Bernhardt have demonstrated that a passive home that needs 90 per cent less energy for heat can be built for the same effective price as a conventional home. This means that it is possible to set the bar high for all new buildings, with a building code requirement that they be zero carbon, as Britain requires for all buildings by 2020. Over time, this will become the norm for all buildings.

The tougher question is how to retrofit the two million or so existing buildings.

Every house that uses an oil or gas furnace can switch to a solar heat pump, combined with greatly increased insulation to keep the heat in. A solar heat pump is more commonly known as an air-source heat pump, but since it’s the sun that provides the heat, why not call it what it is?

A heat pump can also extract heat from the sea—which is how Brentwood College is heated in Mill Bay on Vancouver Island; from sewage—which is how Olympic Village is heated in Vancouver; and from the ground beneath a building or parking lot, which is quite common. The use of heat pumps will increase electrical demand, but meeting the increased demand will not be one of our problems on the road to becoming a 100 per cent renewable energy region. 

In The Hague, Holland, the small town of Duindorp has built a district ocean heat system that is heating 800 low-income homes, using the same heat pump technology as Brentwood College. Any community near a large body of water could do the same.

How Could We Achieve It?

Technical possibility is one thing: but how to turn it into reality? People are notoriously reluctant to turn their lives upside down for a home retrofit unless there is an important driver, such as a failed system. An increase in B.C.’s $30-a-tonne carbon tax would persuade some people to make the change, but equally, we could learn from San Francisco’s experience, where they have required an owner to bring a house up to the new energy code at the point of sale for over 30 years without any great social revolt.

Requiring a building to be upgraded to zero-carbon heat as a condition of sale would make the retrofit affordable for the seller, who would roll the cost into the sale-price; it would also make it affordable for the buyer, who would offset the increased price with lower energy bills. It would spread the load for the building industry, enabling them to train new staff knowing they had years of work ahead of them; and it would reach the bulk of B.C. homes, since the average Canadian family moves house five times during their lifetime, or once every ten years.

District Heat Using Renewable Energy

Replacing oil and gas in commercial buildings, apartment buildings and condos presents a higher order of challenge. One approach is district heat piped in from a central installation, sourced from industrial waste heat, water or ground-source heat pumps, biogas from composting, or the incineration of biomass. There are plenty of examples in Scandinavia, where they like to incinerate their garbage. In Sweden, however, recycling has become so effective that only 4 per cent of the garbage stream is left for incineration, and they have had to start importing Norway’s garbage to keep the plants going.

This type of building also rarely changes hands, so requiring an upgrade linked to change of ownership won’t work; instead, we require that commercial and multi-unit residential building owners commission an audit every ten years to address building energy efficiency, and receive grants, loans and tax incentives for an upgrade.

Year-Round Solar Heating – Is This The Future?

Looking ahead, seasonal solar heat storage is perhaps the most exciting prospect on the horizon. At Drake Landing, part of a subdivision in Okotoks, south of Calgary, 52 homes built to the R-2000 standard collect more solar heat than they need during the summer. The heat is pumped into an insulated underground storage system with 144 boreholes and brought back in winter, providing 90 per cent of the heating needs. The same is happening in Denmark, Germany, Switzerland and Austria, sometimes for a whole community or a hospital using a district heat system, sometimes for a single building.

The European Solar Thermal Industry Federation has a goal that by 2030, 50 per cent of all new buildings will use seasonal solar heat storage, and 50 per cent of retrofits will do the same. If you want to see how much progress has been made, check out this database of 131 large-scale solar heating plants, the oldest—in Vaxjo, Sweden—dating back to 1979.

What’s driving Europe’s progress? In March 2007 a binding target was adopted by the 27 EU countries requiring that 20 per cent of their final energy consumption should come from renewable energy by 2020. We need to do the same. British Columbia has an overall goal to reduce GHGs by 33 per cent by 2020, but we have no sectoral goals. To achieve the same kind of technology progress as Europe, we might adopt a goal that every regional district should meet 20 per cent of its building heat needs from renewable energy by 2020, excluding baseboard heaters, rising to 40 per cent by 2025 and 100 per cent by 2030.

Heat for Industry—the Even More Complicated Part

So what about the high-temperature heat that industry needs, currently provided by burning gas? This brings us to the highest level of challenge. In May 2014, the Carbon Trust produced a useful summary of industrial renewable heat progress.  Globally, renewables supply 9.5 per cent of the world’s industrial heat, the rest being provided by coal (45 per cent), natural gas (23 per cent) and oil (16 per cent).

B.C.’s pulp and paper sector already uses biomass from its own wastes to create heat, burning black liquor (a waste from converting pulpwood into paper) and wood wastes.

For the very intensive heat up to 800°C that’s needed to make steel and iron, countries are embracing a variety of means, ranging from burning charcoal and biomass in Brazil to burning bio-liquids in Germany and using concentrated solar energy in Italy. Making cement requires even more intense heat, in excess of 1450°C, which is currently produced by burning oil, gas, coal and coke. In Brazil and the EU there is some use of biomass instead; Germany and Poland are burning organic municipal wastes.

Is It Possible in B.C.?

How much heat of this kind might be available in B.C.? The answer as far as I know is that no-one has done the research to see if we could match B.C.’s industrial heat needs to our renewable heat resources, factoring in the distances involved in trucking biomass from a forest to an industrial plant. At the super-sustainable Dockside Green neighbourhood development in downtown Victoria, where the Nexterra district heat plant was planned to operate on biomass, the rule of thumb was 100 kilometres trucking distance. The limit would change if or when trucking develops long-distance electric drive, but that’s not even on the horizon yet.

As for what’s on the horizon, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have developed a way to make steam from direct solar energy using a cheap sponge-like surface made from foam with a graphite surface that sits on top of water. The sponge draws the water up and the graphite collects concentrated sunlight, and when they meet they generate steam. It’s obviously not a year-round system, but it shows that there is innovation going on, deep in the research labs where brilliant minds get to play.

Would it Destroy Jobs and the Economy?

Most of the transition described above would create new jobs, and since the renewable energy would be generated in B.C., the money spent would remain within the provincial economy, creating demand as it circulates.

The main situation where the transition could create stress is if an imposed requirement created higher costs, causing a business to lose orders, a situation that could be addressed with price and tax incentives.

Where there's a will, there's a zero-carbon way. 

Stay tuned for next week's installment on greening B.C.'s transportation.

This series originally appeared on the B.C. Sustainable Energy Association website.

Image Credit: Mrs TeePot via Flickr.

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.

This article originally appeared on the B.C. Sustainable Energy Association website.

It’s known as “the warm land,” and as soon as you get off the highway Vancouver Island’s Cowichan Valley certainly has the feeling of pleasant summer warmth, filled with agricultural fecundity. It was the Coast Salish Cowichan people who gave it the name – that’s what cowichan means in the Hul’q’umi’num language.

So solar energy lies deep in the heritage of the valley, and maybe its appropriate that British Columbia’s first solar bulk buy has sprung unto life here, and is pioneering a new approach to solar installations.

Peter Nix—who calls himself a Cowichan carbon-buster—started pondering the possibility in May, so he was ready to leap when the opportunity arose to place a bulk order for 720 solar panels, totaling 200 kilowatts. A large project had fallen through, and the panels were available at 72 cents a watt, much less than the market norm of $1.00 a watt for solar PV of this quality.

Peter is a biologist who used to work—for his sins—in the Alberta Tar Sands, helping Suncor reclaim its ravaged lands. When he submitted a mine-closure report laying out the many difficulties of achieving this goal, only to see it edited with the statement that “the reclamation of oil sands lands will succeed,” which he knew to be unprovable using science, Peter knew he could no longer be a team player, and it was time to quit.

Carbon-Busting

Since becoming a carbon-buster, driven by a passionate anger about the climate emergency and what it will mean for his children and grandchildren, Peter has been arrested when he and thirteen others stopped a coal train exporting U.S. coal through British Columbia; lobbied the U.S. Senate and Congress for a carbon fee and dividend in Washington D.C. with the Citizens Climate Lobby; organized a solar hot water bulk buy; and joined the People’s Climate March in New York in September.

With the promise of 720 cut-price solar panels, Peter got on the phone to his carbon-buster network and within a week 30 people had given him $125,000 in cheques. He had no formal organization, no treasurer, and no idea where he could even store the panels when they arrived, but he was working with good people.

The panels were ordered by the Viridian Energy Cooperative, a workers’ coop of five licensed plumbers, electricians and engineers based in the Cowichan Valley who offer a renewable energy design and consulting service, whose vision is “to contribute to a world where clean, renewable energy is the established method for powering energy efficient, environmentally friendly, healthy and resilient communities.”

Among the Coop’s members is Eric Smiley, who used to teach courses on solar energy at BCIT, who has coordinated and taught in Vancouver Island University’s Green Building and Renewable Energy Technology Diploma, and is among the best-informed people on solar in the province.

Mike Isbrucker, of Alternative Electric in Duncan B.C. has partnered with Viridian to coordinate many of the details and some of the installations. Mike also brings years of solar PV installation experience and contacts, rounding out the expertise and making this a truly cooperative venture.

The panels are top quality poly-crystalline, made in China by Canadian Solar, one of the world’s largest and most successful solar energy firms, with annual revenue closing in on $3-billion, built by the visionary Canadian engineer, Shawn Qu, starting in 2001. In 2013, the company manufactured almost 2 gigawatts of solar PV, enough to cover half a million homes with 4 kw systems.

$3.00 to $3.15 a Watt Installed Price

Eric has done the math for Peter’s bulk buy, and using a “reasonable case”, assuming a 5 per cent shading loss and an increase in BC Hydro rates continuing at 3 per cent a year after the announced 28 per cent price increase over the next five years, the installed price comes to $3.15 a watt, with some easier installs coming in at near $3.00. That’s quite a stunning reduction from the market average of $4 a watt, or $3.50 for a group of homeowners who contact a company at the same time seeking a coordinated install.

To put that in context, $4 a watt is a 100-fold drop in price since 1980. The “Solar Tsunami,” as I like to call it, is hitting the world in waves, and this may be the first sign that it is reaching B.C.’s shores.

Financially, when Eric Smiley crunched the numbers he calculated that members of the buyers’ club will see a long-term profit over 25 years of $3,650, giving an internal rate of return at 1.6 per cent, and an equivalent GIC rate of 2.0 per cent. The actual install costs are coming in cheaper than expected, however, so the financial returns are going to be higher. 

The panels arrive next week, and most of the 30 net-metered installs will be done by Viridian and Alternative Electric, averaging 3 kw per home, with a few being done by do-it-yourselfers. By November, we should start to see the photos pouring in from the proud solar owners.

A 50 kw Commercial-Scale Solar Farm

Peter has bigger plans, however. He is buying 200 of the panels himself to install a 50 kw commercial-scale solar farm in his own back yard, to create a focus where people can learn about solar energy and get inspired, and to make the business case for installing solar panels.

And that’s just the beginning. He and his group are exploring the options of setting up a permanent Solar Cooperative, or joining the existing Cowichan Energy Alternatives. Having helped produce North Cowichan’s award-winning Climate Action and Energy Plan, he wants to lobby the municipality to set up its own renewable energy utility, and to assist people to buy and install local renewable energy systems. And why stop there? He sees the whole of Vancouver Island as being full of solar opportunity.

To wind this up, last night I attended a community meeting on solar energy in the Yellow Point area east of Ladysmith, where I now live. The hall was packed with 85 people, all keen to learn about solar and the possibility to reduce their BC Hydro bills by producing their own power. For a very small rural community, this was a very big turnout.

Peter Nix presented his solar bulk buy ideas, a local installer talked about the importance of reducing energy demand before buying solar, and Dave Neads from Gabriola Island told us how their non-profit, GabEnergy, is assisting Gabriola residents to source, install and commission their own solar PV systems for an even lower price.

How low? To answer to this question, we’ll have to wait until I visit Dave on Gabriola, and dig into their work. Is on-the-ground community organizing like this the key to a solar breakthrough in British Columbia? If so, B.C.’s Solar Tsunami might be arriving a lot sooner than I thought it would.

So all credit to the Cowichan Solar Bulk-Buy group for their astonishing pioneering work!

Image Credit: Solar cells by 4D via Flickr

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We’re all taught in life that if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. The sentiment has been applied to Germany’s renewable energy transition, or Energiewende, with critics questioning emission reduction reporting or arguing costs of new systems are too high. But even if the Energiewende isn’t quite as shiny as it first appears, there are still a few important lessons from Germany's energy transition that Canada can take to heart. German clean energy policy expert Dr. David Jacobs paid Canada a visit this week to dispel a few myths about the Energiewende. While addressing potential downsides, Jacobs talked about the lessons North American countries can take from Germany’s push toward completely sustainable energy.    Jacobs, the founder and director of International Energy Transition Consulting, organized an event in Vancouver Thursday to discuss Germany’s energy policies, and invited MLAs, policymakers, developers and academics to ask questions. He also spoke at the annual Generate conference, hosted by Clean Energy BC. Jacobs visited at the invitation of Clean Energy Canada as part of their Low Carbon Leadership speaker series.

Localized and democratized energy production

Where once there were only four companies supplying energy to the German grid, there are now 1.2 million contributors, and Jacobs said that number is only growing. The result is a decentralized and localized system of energy production and supply.  

Germany's next steps

Political obstacles to Canada's energy transition

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.