It’s not exactly a message you want to receive in the middle of a cold winter night. “Extreme cold resulting in high power demand has placed the Alberta grid at a high risk of rotating power outages.” Such emergency grid alerts come with instructions: Don’t charge your electric vehicle. Turn off your lights. Please don’t turn on your oven.

As Albertans’ electricity use sets record after record in recent years, grid alerts are part of the reality. But the reason for them is far from simple — and cold weather alone is seldom enough to send the grid into a tailspin. 

Just last week, the Alberta Electric System Operator published an update to its grid alert system. “Alberta is well prepared to meet the higher electricity demand typically experienced during the winter months,” it said in a press release. “Given current supply forecasts and intertie availability, the risk of resource adequacy issues heading into winter remains very low.”

But it’s not zero.

Here’s what you need to know about grid alerts and how the frequency of electricity shortages could change in the future.

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Quick little recap on what a grid is, please?

Alberta’s electricity grid is complicated, to say the least. 

The grid is a tangle of private electricity generators connecting to private transmission lines, fed into homes by another set of private distributors, plus those bills that would make an astrophysicist’s head spin, all overseen by an arm’s-length provincial operator, provincial regulator and market watchdog (not to mention a very involved provincial government). 

All this to make sure your lights stay on and your smart fridge can recap the latest season of Love Island while nagging you to restock free-range eggs.

But the grid can get dicey, especially with increasing demand. And the Alberta government has recently introduced significant changes to the way the grid is run that bring significant uncertainty. 

So when it all gets to be too much, a grid alert is issued and Albertans are asked to immediately reduce electricity use — for fear if they don’t, the province will not have enough to go around.

So, what’s a grid alert exactly?

Let’s keep it simple to start. A grid alert happens when demand starts to get so high that it might outstrip supply. 

Too many people using power, not enough power being generated.The Alberta Electric System Operator, which manages the grid and tries to ensure enough power flows to consumers, recently changed its alert system. Now the public will only be notified if there is an emergency and there could be rolling blackouts. Previously, it would also advise the public to reduce consumption before an emergency occurred.

If things get really bad, the operator will initiate rolling blackouts, cutting power to different regions of the province. 

The grid operator recently announced new ways of reporting on grid conditions to make it easier to understand, including the severity of alerts. 

Renewable power is the problem, isn’t it?

No, it’s not. 

There’s no doubt renewables add more complexity to the system, contributing power based on variables like wind and sun that run on their own schedule, rather than the exact time electricity is needed. But data from the grid operator showing alerts between 2006 and 2024 doesn’t support the idea that the surge of renewables that started around 2020 made things so unpredictable that grid alerts are happening more often. 

The phaseout of coal power doesn’t have a huge effect, either. 

The first year of data published by the grid operator, 2006, had the most alerts, while 2013 had the most hours of alerts in a given year. Although the operator has not posted summaries of alerts since late 2024, monthly event logs show only one alert in 2025. 

Alerts that were headline news in 2024 — and blamed on renewables by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith — turned out to largely be the result of unplanned outages at natural gas facilities. 

Between 2006 and 2024, renewable generation climbed from less than five per cent of the power supply, to approximately 22 per cent in 2025. 

What causes grid alerts, exactly?

The basic answer is weather and how we respond to it. 

The biggest spikes in alerts over the years have been in July, presumably when things get real hot and everyone turns on fans and air conditioners. September is the second-most popular month for alerts followed by the deep winter month of January.

The operator, in response to questions from The Narwhal, said the September spikes were mostly due to higher-than-normal temperatures combined with planned maintenance that reduced supply.

But, of course, there’s nuance. 

Those large natural gas plants being shut down, for example. Or there could be a catastrophic combination of factors — the wind stops blowing unexpectedly at the same time that some major gas generators are down for maintenance, just as demand ramps up due to weather. 

There is also increasing pressure on the grid as more and more aspects of contemporary life are digitized and electrified. 

If someone points the finger at just one source as the problem during a grid alert — i.e. renewables — it’s usually safe to say that’s an indication that there’s a political narrative at play, rather than a hard examination of the facts. 

Can we expect more grid alerts in the future?

Probably. 

Firstly, there’s the increased demand through electrification of, well, everything. But there’s also increasing uncertainty in Alberta’s electricity market, with the government and the grid operator undertaking a massive restructuring that’s not expected to be fully operational until 2030. That means investors are holding off on expensive decisions until there’s more certainty. 

The recent pipeline agreement between Ottawa and Alberta also includes changes to the electricity grid in the province, with calls to drastically increase power sharing between B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan and, potentially, nuclear power. 

All of those could have a big impact on the way the grid operates, but details still need to be hammered out. 

And, of course, there’s the lingering effects of the government’s seven-month moratorium on renewable energy projects, the stiffer regulations that followed and the impacts of new rules under the restructured energy market that adversely impact new and existing wind and solar projects. 

There’s also the push for data centres, but so far the Alberta government has restricted their proliferation, realizing there’s not enough power to supply them. Those who want to build new centres will have to provide their own power — a move the government also hopes will use onsite natural gas (reminder: natural gas is largely methane, a potent source of atmosphere-heating emissions). 

While there has been significant additions to power generation in Alberta recently, if investment stalls for several years it could result in not enough power at a time when demand is increasing. 

And that’s a perfect recipe for grid alerts.

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