This story was originally published in 2019. Go here for our explainer on what the 2021 election results mean for environment and climate policy.

Well, well, well, the dust has settled (kind of) and Canada has a Liberal minority government.

Wait, what exactly is a minority government?

Here’s how it works: there are 338 seats in Canada’s House of Commons. To govern unilaterally, a party needs to win 170 seats. That’s what we Canucks call a majority government.

If no party wins more than 170 seats, you have what we call a minority government. That means the party that forms government will need the support of other parties to pass any legislation. It also means they can face a non-confidence vote at any moment, so they better keep themselves in the good graces of some allies.

Who those allies will be is the big, unanswered question at this hour.

What we know is this: the Liberals need 13 extra seats to stay in power. As of Tuesday morning, the Conservatives won 121 seats, the NDP won 24 seats, the Bloc Quebecois won 32 seats and the Greens won three seats.

The Liberals could work with either the NDP or the Bloc Quebecois (or some combination thereof) and remain in power.

Both the NDP and the Bloc have strong environmental platforms — arguably stronger than the Liberals — so if anything the Liberals can be expected to take a stronger stance on environmental issues.

There’s much we don’t know, but here are a few things we can reasonably expect to happen on the environment file.

1) The carbon tax will stay in place

An escalating price on carbon has been the cornerstone of the Liberals climate plan and they’ll have plenty of support to keep the carbon tax in place. The NDP also promised a carbon tax, but vowed to take it a step further by removing exemptions for heavy polluters.

Meanwhile, the Bloc Quebecois proposed that Ottawa impose a carbon tax in provinces where greenhouse gas emissions per capita are higher than average and that the proceeds be paid to provinces where emissions are lower, creating a form of green equalization. Trudeau will almost certainly be concerned about Albertan alienation, so he’ll avoid getting involved in that plan.

2) About those fossil fuel subsidies …

Back in 2015, the Liberals promised to phase out fossil fuel subsidies over the “medium term,” but Environmental Defence estimates the federal and provincial governments are still handing out $3.3 billion a year to the fossil fuel industry. A September 2018 report found that although there has been some progress on fossil fuel subsidy reform in Canada in recent years, there is still a significant amount of work to be done for Canada to meet a G7 country promise to end all “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” by 2025.

The NDP and the Bloc Quebecois campaigned on a promise to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies — a policy that enjoys tremendous public support. With the parties needing to work together, we should expect this phase out to happen sooner rather than later.

3) The Trans Mountain pipeline debate is unlikely to be re-opened in Parliament, unless …

While many of the opposition parties might want to re-open this debate, it’s hard to see an opening for them to do so given the pipeline is already approved. Even if the NDP, Greens and Bloc Quebecois wanted to force a confidence vote on it, the Conservatives would side with the Liberals on this one.

However, the Liberals still need to find $10 to $15 billion to build the pipeline.

“The public financing of the project does seem to present a bit of a pickle,” said Kai Nagata of Dogwood, a B.C. democracy group. “It doesn’t seem likely the NDP/Bloc/Greens could vote for a budget with pipeline construction funds, but the Conservative party probably couldn’t stomach voting for everything else.”

Nagata added: “Even the Conservatives should be philosophically uncomfortable with borrowing money, in a deficit, to spend on corporate welfare.”

4) Buh-buy single-use plastics

The Liberals promised to start phasing out single-use plastics starting around 2021. The NDP, meanwhile, wants to intensify that approach by straight-up banning single-use plastics by 2022. Any which way, single-use plastics such as bags and straws are likely going the way of the dodo.

5) Full steam ahead on conservation

The Trudeau government has made significant progress toward meeting its Aichi Biodiversity targets: it pledged to protect at least 17 per cent of terrestrial area and inland waters, and 10 per cent of its oceans, by 2020. A flurry of big new protected areas has moved that along.

The Liberals have also committed to conserving 25 per cent of Canada’s land, freshwater and ocean by 2025 and to working toward conserving 30 per cent by 2030. They also plan to advocate for countries around the world to set a 30 per cent conservation goal.

Additionally, the Liberals have identified the opportunity to reduce emissions by 30 megatonnes by 2030 using natural climate solutions that support efforts to better manage, conserve and restore forests, grasslands, agricultural lands, wetlands and coastal areas — as well ad by planting two billion trees.

The NDP and Greens have also committed to the goal of conserving 30 per cent of land, freshwater and oceans by 2030.

So, watch for more Indigenous protected areas, national parks and marine protected areas.

6) Expect more electric vehicles

The Liberals have set a target of 30 per cent of all light-duty vehicles on the road being electric by 2030. The Bloc Quebecois also support measures to require manufacturers to sell more electric vehicles. And the NDP support maintaining the $5,000 federal incentive for electric vehicle purchases while eliminating federal sales tax on them. One way or another, electric vehicle incentives are here to stay.

7) A lot of Albertans are going to be outraged

With Conservatives winning a higher percentage of the popular vote than the Liberals nationwide, and winning every seat in Alberta and Saskatchewan except for one, Westerners are rightly going to be upset about ending up with so little say in Ottawa. How that will manifest is yet to be seen, but I’d wager a bet it ain’t gonna be pretty.

8) Will electoral reform have its moment in the sun?

The NDP and Greens have long supported a move to proportional representation — an electoral system that would ensure the allocation of seats is more in line with the popular vote than our current first-past-the-post system. With the Conservatives being the latest losers under the first-past-the-post system, one has to wonder if there might be a cross-party push for a referendum on modernizing our electoral system.

Much more will become clear over the coming weeks and months, but for now what we know is that the Liberals will have to work with some combination of the NDP and Bloc Quebecois — and that means that if anything, they’ll have a stronger mandate to take bold action on the climate crisis.

Updated Oct. 22, 2019, at 10 a.m. to include updated seat counts.

Updated Oct. 22, 2019, at 2:45 p.m. to add further comment regarding the Trans Mountain pipeline and to provide further detail about conservation promises. 

Updated Oct. 24, 2019, at 11:40 a.m. to correct an error regarding the source of fossil fuel subsidies. The $3.3 billion a year in subsidies are from both the federal and provincial governments, not just the federal government.

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.

I get excited about lots of things: croissants, good books, the surf forecast, Netflix.

But the Canadian election is a tough thing to get amped on right now, even though it’s such a tight race. It doesn’t help that it’s starting to get dark before dinner — a phenomenon that has a way of dulling one’s enthusiasm for many things.

But Canadians’ disenchantment with the prospect of casting a ballot on Monday goes beyond the late-fall blues. 

“It’s been a horrible campaign,” Frank Graves, the president of Ekos Research, a polling firm, told the New York Times. “People are discouraged in the extreme.”

The debates — if you’ve forced yourself to watch any of them — have mostly spawned deep sighs, eye rolls and disillusionment with this whole damn democracy thing.

I have a personal rule that every time someone starts talking about Donald Trump, I make them talk about the Canadian election instead. (My friends love me, I swear.)

The most common sentiment I’ve heard over the past few weeks? “I just really dislike all politicians and hate having to choose the least-bad person.”

Fair. It’s easy to want to just tune out of the whole thing. Heck, it’s even kind of trendy to tune out of the whole thing. (Need I mention that a book called The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck is at No. 2 in the ‘advice’ section of the New York Times Bestseller list and has been on that list for at least two years? Spoiler alert: it’s actually about how to give f*cks selectively.)

But, despite all of these bummer factors, there are some really good reasons why it’s worth summoning the willpower to get out to the ballot box on Monday.

As a millennial myself, I find it pretty exciting that 18 to 38-year-olds are the largest group of voters this election, at 37 per cent.

“If political parties want to win in October, they need to have the millennials on-side,” according to opinion research firm Abacus Data.

Eighty-seven per cent of millennials consider themselves to be either environmental moderates or ardent environmentalists.

We finally outweigh the baby boomers. That’s kind of a big deal. 

As the folks at Future Majority put it:

“Young Canadians have grown up in the shadows of older generations who until now have had the most power in shaping our electorate. Historically, politicians have been able to succeed without representing us while in office. But not anymore … We are the new majority.”

Here’s the thing though: us young-ish folk show up way less reliably to vote than older voters. The kicker: in a close race, the outcome is largely going to be determined by voter turnout.

With the leading parties pretty much tied and tons of ridings up for grabs, young voters have the opportunity to change the outcome of this election, simply by getting out to vote on Monday.

How the hell do I figure out who to vote for?

Because of Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system, what we really have on our hands are 338 individual elections — one in each electoral district, or riding, in the country.

While this makes for some tricky voting choices, the upside is even if you feel disenchanted with those leaders’ debates, you can still find some hope in the fact that what you’re really voting for is a local representative.

Here’s how to figure out what to do:

Step 1: Find out what riding you live in. 

Step 2: Check out your local candidates (once you put in your postal code on the Elections Canada site, scroll down and click the “who are the candidates in my electoral district” button).

Step 3: Don’t have any idea who you want to support? Take the Vote Compass quiz to find out how your values align with the parties. Another great resource for young Canadians are Generation Squeeze’s handy voting guides. 

Step 4: Many Canadians choose to vote strategically depending on who the leading contenders are in their riding. Check out 338Canada to learn what happened in your riding in the last election and how the race is shaping up this time.

Step 5: Find your polling station and get ‘er done. 

In the 2015 election, voter turnout was the highest it’s been in 22 years, with 68.3 per cent of voters casting a ballot. The biggest jump was among 18- to 24-year-olds. Compared to 2011, 18 per cent more of Canada’s youngest voters chose to do some adulting and cast a ballot in 2015. 

This increase in turnout, especially among young women, was largely credited with Trudeau’s victory. And while many young people may feel jaded about that outcome now, the fact is that just by showing up in larger numbers, young people forced politicians to shift their platforms to address our concerns (climate change and affordability — two top-tier millennial concerns — are the issues in this election). 

All of which is to say, if you aren’t super enthused about the choices, you’re not alone. But by getting out to the ballot box — even if you don’t elect the candidate of your choice — you still may help move the needle on issues that matter.

Young people have been leading the way in climate strikes around the world this year, but to make the change we need to see in the world, we also need to be a leading force at the ballot box.  

If you’re still feeling like you’re in the “all politicians are liars” camp, take a deep breath, go back to Step 2 and look at your local candidates.

Then, on Monday, just go do it.

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.

This article originally appeared on Alternatives Journal.

“What is it about activists that they can’t even be optimistic for one day after a whole decade?” 

The disgust and disappointment on my 16 year olds face is somewhat heartbreaking as he pours cereal the morning after the Canadian election and surfs the comments on my Facebook page. I can only shake my head sadly and agree with him. 

Wouldn’t it be great to be fueled by hope instead of fear as the late Jack Layton urged us in his letter to the nation? For just a minute could we not take a deep breath and focus on all the things that we know will now change?

My sons have never known a Canada that was not under Stephen Harper's thumb. For the last decade they have listened to their parents shock and outrage over the weakening of our environmental laws, the lack of transparency, the erosion of democracy, the muzzling of scientists, the attack on environmental groups, the disregard for Canada’s constitution.

Along the way we tried to keep hope alive. We painted a picture for them of a Canada that valued evidence based policy. A Canada that led on the world stage to create critical international agreements like the Montreal Protocol. We talked about how lucky we are to live in a democracy and how important it was for us to participate, to organize and to vote. 

Together we watched the election results come in from coast to coast and I watched the hope and optimism on my sons face as he listened to Justin Trudeau’s acceptance speech. “Sunny ways!” We all yelled, half-hysterical and grinning ear to ear. “To the end of the Harper Era!” We cheered as we raised a glass in jubilant toast. 

Our exuberance made the next mornings conversation all that more painful. “Is he really no different?” “Why can’t people ever be hopeful?”

Why not indeed. 

Optimism is a particularly hard place for the activist community. It is by nature a community that draws from the margins: those that question the status quo are often the same people that the status quo doesn’t benefit. There are also those that are simply hard wired to question authority and then there are those who have immersed themselves in climate science and for whom incremental progress or half measures are simply seen as disastrous and even immoral.

In the case of this election and the thorough trouncing of the New Democratic Party there are also those in the activist community who were deeply invested in seeing an NDP or at least a Liberal minority that would give more space for an NDP agenda and with it the potential to strengthen the Liberals position on climate change. 

Let’s be clear — the Liberal Party Platform on climate change currently lacks strong emissions reductions targets at a critical moment in history when it is clear that the United Nations Climate Change Conference discussions are undergoing a dramatic cultural shift. For the first time in over a decade we are seeing a race to the top on climate policy. Countries are committing to aggressive targets and, like China with the announcement of their cap and trade system, they are putting in place real policies to meet those targets.

Canada will have to scramble to catch up after a decade of federal action and there is a considerable amount of fear and cynicism in the activist and scientific community about how our new Liberal government will rise to that challenge. Prime Minster-designate Justin Trudeau’s support for the Keystone pipeline and the cosy relationship between the Liberal campaign chair and Transcanada has not helped create optimism on the climate file. 

Of course, there is also the experience of our colleagues south of the border who remind us that without strong public campaigns the Obama administration would never have considered pulling permits for Arctic drilling and certainly would have approved the Keystone pipeline by now. The pull of the oil and gas industry is strong and while we now have the technology to build a cleaner, safer energy system, it is not easy for any elected leader to forego significant short term financial benefits from fossil fuel exploration let alone tell their constituents that the price of electricity and gas needs to go up.

The Liberal campaign slogan during this Federal election was ‘hope and hard work.’  In the coming months we will need a lot of both. Not just from our new government but also from ourselves. 

Let’s allow ourselves to hope. For our children and our health and the health of our communities. Over the past week I have forced myself not to fall into the pit of cynicism and to take a moment everyday to think of one thing that I care about that will change under this new government. It has had the effect of weights being lifted off my shoulders leaving me feel more spacious, more creative and free. 

A decade of attacks on our democracy, on those who can afford it the least and on our environment has left considerable baggage and scars. It will take a while to unpack it all and to trust my own government again. For my children I will try. If we allow ourselves to hope, Prime Minister-designate Justin Trudeau is making it easy for us. 

We aren’t getting platitudes and framing devoid of real promises and content. Within minutes we were getting renewed commitments to a new voting system, an inquiry into the missing and murdered Aboriginal women and an invitation to Green Party leader Elizabeth May and every Premier to attend the Paris Climate Summit as part of a team. We even got a day after press conference where our Prime Minister-designate…answered questions. 

The coming months will not be easy as we begin to establish a new relationship with our government and the international community but I am hopeful that we now have a government that will govern for all of Canadians best interests and not simply for one sector. I am hopeful that we now have a government that will choose science over politics, clean, safe energy systems over business as usual and perhaps even a government that will choose people over polluters. 

Tzeporah Berman BA MES LLD (honoris causa) is an environmental activist, an Adjunct Professor of Environmental Studies at York University, author of This Crazy Time: Living Our Environmental Challenge, published by Knopf Canada and the mother of two boys. 

Image: Flickr

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Attacks on civil liberties, the right to protest, freedom of information and democracy must be put to an end by Canada’s next government, according to a group of organizations called the Voices-Voix Coalition.

Famed Canadian author Margaret Atwood, former Canadian ambassador Stephen Lewis and former federal justice minister Irwin Colter are backing the demand, saying Canadians have faced an unacceptable erosion of their democratic rights in recent years.

“We have been witness to a fundamental shift in the tone and tactics of the federal government, moving to shut down debate and dissent,” Atwood said.

“We need to ensure that these actions — from defunding of women's organizations, to limits on free expression found in laws like Bill C-51 — do not become the new normal.”

Changes to Canadians’ right to know and rights to speak out are documented in Voices-Voix’s recent report Dismantling Democracy: Stifling Debate & Dissent in Canada.

The report “superbly captures these concerns, helping us remember what we have lost, and what must be undone by future governments,” Atwood added.

Stephen Lewis, former ambassador for Canada to the UN said “the evisceration of cherished Canadian values should be front and centre in this campaign,” adding the report is “a staggering compendium of political abuse.”

Documenting the abuse of political power and “arrogance” of Canada’s federal government “drives us all to recognize that unless the government of Canada changes course, the Canada we once knew is definitively doomed,” Lewis said.

Human rights advocate and former federal justice minister Irwin Colter said election debates focused primarily on jobs and the economy but didn’t focus enough on “issues relating to the promotion and protection of Canadian constitutionalism, the Charter of Rights, respect for Parliament, the independence of the judiciary, and in particular the protection of our democratic space and civic engagement.”

In a press release the Voices-Voix Coalition said that while the outcome of the election is still unclear, “what is certain…is that the MPs elected will have important, urgent and unanswered questions to address about the future of dissent, democracy and civil liberties in Canada.”

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