The B.C. government is undermining its own climate action plan by granting hundreds of millions of dollars a year in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, according to a report released Monday that singles out the LNG Canada project as a notable recipient of the largesse. 

The report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development documents a wide array of subsidies that contribute to increased fossil fuel production and use in B.C. ­ — subsidies that in the fiscal year 2017-18 totalled more than $830 million, write authors Vanessa Corkal and Philip Gass.

These subsidies include at least $268 million in provincial tax exemptions for that one year period, according to the report, Locked In and Losing Out: British Columbia’s Fossil Fuel Subsidies, which notes calculations are conservative because not all data related to provincial spending on fossil fuel subsidies is publicly disclosed. 

Fossil fuel producers also claim millions of dollars in credits each year to reduce their royalty payments, and B.C. has accumulated up to $3.1 billion in outstanding credits, the report says. 

Corkal called B.C.’s fossil fuel subsidies the “elephant in the room” as the provincial government touts its climate action plan, CleanBC.

“There is no getting around it: these subsidies promote the production and consumption of fuels that cause climate change,” Corkal said in a statement that accompanied the release of the 35-page report.

“They encourage increases in the same pollution that other policies aim to reduce.”

B.C. has ‘unique’ subsidy framework for natural gas

While many of B.C.’s subsidies are similar to those in other provinces, the report says B.C.’s complex subsidy framework for natural gas production is unique. 

“Through an array of measures, the provincial government continues to make concerted efforts to expand natural gas extraction and export supports, in particular for liquefied natural gas (LNG).”

Despite its CleanBC initiative, the B.C. government has fallen significantly short of meeting its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, notes the report, which points out that fossil fuel subsidies are often overlooked as one reason why B.C. is failing to meet emissions targets. 

The report says fossil fuel subsidies — including tax exemptions, royalty reductions and direct spending commitments — pull vital government resources away from climate change strategies and other priorities such as health care and education.

“This means that other sectors of the economy must compensate for the vast amounts of government revenue spent on subsidies — which is neither fair nor efficient.”

6 awkward realities behind B.C.’s big LNG giveaway

According to the environmental group Stand.earth, B.C.’s fossil fuel subsidies amount to more than the province’s housing budget in 2019, while outstanding royalty credits to fossil fuel producers add up to more money than the $2.7 billion the province spent building new elementary and high schools in 2019.

“That is simply unacceptable,” said Sven Biggs, Stand.earth’s climate and energy campaigner.  

The report says B.C.’s agreement with LNG Canada sets a precedent for similar subsidies for other fossil fuel producers “and will lock in high-carbon infrastructure for decades.”

The provincial government has already announced $5.3 billion in subsidies for LNG Canada, a consortium of five of the largest and most profitable multinational corporations in the world, including Royal Dutch Shell, Malaysian-owned Petronas and PetroChina Co.  

The companies will ship fracked gas from B.C.’s northeast to Kitimat, where it will be cooled to below 160 degrees Celsius, compressed and turned into liquid for transport to Asian markets. 

“Support for this new wave of fossil fuel production comes at the expense of cleaner — and more affordable — renewable energy,” the report notes.

Publicly funded projects provide electricity for gas sector

In addition to previously announced subsidies, the report says the B.C. government is undertaking “significant efforts” to support the natural gas sector through several capital expenditure projects that provide electricity access. 

For instance, BC Hydro, a publicly owned utility company, will provide $56 million for the $82 million LNG Canada load interconnection project, which includes a new transmission line and substation upgrades to give LNG Canada access to sufficient electricity for its Kitimat operations.

“In this case, project financing comes from BC Hydro ratepayers, which includes the general public,” the report points out.

BC Hydro has provided an additional $205.4 million for expanding transmission infrastructure to the future Site C dam substation near Fort St. John, while the federal government has dedicated $83.6 million for that project.

“Both the federal and provincial governments, as well as BC Hydro, have emphasized the need for additional electricity infrastructure given increasing natural gas exploration and development in the region,” the report says.  

Site C dam construction along the Peace River, B.C., in the summer of 2018. Photo: Garth Lenz / The Narwhal

There is also a “high risk” the publicly funded $10.7 billion Site C dam represents a public investment to support the expansion of the fossil fuel sector “and that electricity rates charged to the LNG sector will be insufficient to recoup the capital costs of the Site C dam infrastructure and related transmission expansion,” the report concludes.

The LNG Canada project will emit 3.45 megatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions annually, according to the provincial government, which has promised the cleanest LNG in the world even though claims of “clean LNG” have been thoroughly debunked. 

By 2050, the project’s emissions will represent more than one-quarter of B.C.’s legislated targets for carbon pollution, set at about 13 megatonnes a year.

Fugitive emissions excluded from carbon pricing

The report also points out fugitive methane emissions and non-methane emissions from the oil and gas sector are exempt from any carbon pricing, including the provincial carbon tax, even though they represent a significant source of B.C.’s overall emissions.

The value of that subsidy is difficult to calculate due to a dearth of data about fugitive emissions, the report notes. However, according to B.C.’s Ministry of Environment, fugitive methane emissions from the oil and gas sector totalled at least 75,000 tonnes in 2016, a figure the report pegs as conservative, also noting that fugitive emissions are self-reported by oil and gas companies. 

“With new LNG facilities under construction, B.C.’s fugitive emissions are expected to grow,” the report states. “As they do, so will the value of this subsidy.”

This Vigilante Scientist Trekked Over 10,000 Kilometres to Reveal B.C.’s Leaking Gas Wells

The report notes that B.C. has also amassed at least $2.6 billion to $3.1 billion in outstanding royalty credits for oil and gas producers, “representing significant foregone public revenue for future years.” 

In 2018-19 alone, fossil fuel producers claimed more than $631 million in deep well credits. 

“These billions in outstanding credits is money that fossil fuel producers will not have to pay in future years and that B.C.’s citizens will not see put toward social services,” the report says, pointing out that royalty payments to the B.C. government have decreased over the past decade.

According to a recent report from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, companies drilling and fracking for natural gas in northeast B.C. were bankrolled by the province to the tune of $703 million last year, a 45 per cent increase over the previous year when companies were handed more than $485 million in credits.

B.C. grants $1.2 billion in deep well subsidies to fracking companies in two years: new report

Since deep well credits are used to reduce the amount of royalties companies pay to the province when the production process has ended, that means B.C. is increasingly out of pocket even though the amount of gas produced in B.C. has risen more than 70 per cent over the last decade.

The LNG Canada project is expected to significantly expand fracking operations in northeast B.C., where the public is ultimately responsible for the soaring costs of cleaning up abandoned wells and leaking fracking ponds.

B.C. also continues to introduce new fossil fuel subsidies for which annual data is not yet available, the report notes. 

The authors recommend that B.C. publicly release all data related to government spending on fossil fuel subsidies, establish an independent expert panel of advisors to review all provincial fossil fuel subsidies and create and implement a plan to phase out the subsidies. 

They also say B.C. should establish clear guidelines to ensure no new fossil fuel subsidies are created and should coordinate with the federal government as it completes its G20 peer review of fossil fuel subsidies. 

Canada provides more government support for oil and gas companies than any other G7 nation and is among the least transparent about fossil fuel subsidies, according to a June report from a coalition of NGOs.

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.

The B.C. government unveiled a new natural gas development plan Thursday in an attempt to trigger a final investment deal with LNG Canada, the proponents of B.C.’s largest proposed liquefied natural gas export terminal, located in Kitimat.

The NDP’s new framework offers LNG Canada and other companies tax reprieves and exemptions and a cheaper electricity rate than the previous B.C. Liberal government extended to the industry. The government is also offering a carbon tax break to LNG companies if their facilities can meet the “cleanest” operating standards in the world.

In a press briefing Premier John Horgan claimed the new plan carves a way for the province to develop a $40 billion LNG facility and still meet climate targets and obligations to Indigenous peoples. LNG Canada’s own estimates say $25 to $40 billion for a “four-train project” while today’s announcement only considers a two-train first phase of the project (‘trains” refers to natural gas processing units).

However, the province has yet to release a climate plan that demonstrates what steps would be taken to counter significant greenhouse gas emissions from the LNG Canada facility — representing 10 per cent of B.C.’s 2050 emissions target, according to the government.

Exporting liquefied natural gas involves fracking for gas in B.C.’s northeast, shipping that gas via pipelines to the coast and then cooling the gas via massive compressors to -162 degrees Celsius, the point at which gas turns into liquid and becomes easier to transport via tanker. LNG Canada would burn its own natural gas for the energy-intensive compression process, resulting in enormous greenhouse gas pollution. (B.C. doesn’t allow the burning of natural gas to create electricity because of these emissions.)

The government said LNG Canada will emit four megatonnes of carbon emissions each year — the equivalent of adding 856,531 cars to the road.

The Pembina Institute, however, has pointed out that when both phases of the project are built the LNG Canada project would emit 8.6 megatonnes of carbon per year in 2030, rising to 9.6 megatonnes in 2050. The government’s emissions estimate only includes the first phase of the project, although its investment figure of $40 billion is for all project phases.

No clear climate plan

B.C.’s new “framework” to attract an LNG industry was slammed by the B.C. Green Party, which called the plan “race to the bottom economics.”

Green Party leader Andrew Weaver pointed out that the more favourable electricity rate the NDP is offering the LNG industry is a “ratepayer subsidy” of Site C dam power that would go to LNG Canada “at less than half of what it would cost to produce.”

At a press conference, Weaver said “there is profound concern” that LNG plants would be exempt from further increases in B.C.’s carbon tax.

He said the Greens will not support any legislation brought forth to back the changes to B.C.’s terms to LNG producers, but stopped short of saying the three Green MLAs will bring down the NDP government over the issue.

“This is not about toppling the government at this juncture,” Weaver said. “Our confidence in government is predicated on government developing a climate plan to meet our targets. Government has been in power for eight months and we have not seen such a plan put forth.”

If LNG Canada sets up shop in B.C. and “you are going to add eight to 10 megatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions,” Weaver said all other aspects of the economy must make up the difference if B.C. is to meet legislated climate targets.

“By 2030 all other aspects of our economy — apart from LNG Canada — would have to cut emissions by 50 per cent. And by 2050 it means that all other aspects of our economy would have to cut emissions by 95 per cent.”

Horgan said the $40 billion LNG Canada project has the support of 16 local First Nations, some of which have signed economic benefits agreements with Shell Canada, which owns a 50 per cent stake in the project alongside PetroChina, Korea Gas Company and Mitsubishi.

The LNG Canada plant would require 670 new kilometres of pipeline, linking Dawson Creek to Kitimat, and would spur up to 700 new tanker visits a year, according to Pembina.

Bringing remaining First Nations onside with the project is the responsibility of LNG Canada, Horgan said.

“It’s not going to be easy,” Horgan told reporters at a press briefing. “Industrial activity and reconciliation with Indigenous peoples are difficult issues. Meeting our climate change objectives are primary and fundamental to the new government’s approach.”

“Rather than skirt those issues, like the previous government did — rather than ignore those issues of reconciliation and climate action — we want to marry industrial activity with those two key government objectives.”

NDP take up ‘cleanest LNG in the world’ mantle

The previous BC Liberal government promised to develop an LNG empire that would export “the cleanest LNG in the world.”

Yet claims of “clean LNG” have been thoroughly debunked and a glut in the global natural gas market led to a major slow down in investment in B.C.

Of the 19 export LNG projects proposed under the previous government, only one, the relatively small Woodfibre LNG, has received a final investment decision.

Former Premier Christy Clark also promised 10,000 jobs in the LNG industry, which failed to materialize.

“They got zero [LNG plants], we may get one,” Horgan said at the press conference.

The NDP is now singing from the Liberal songsheet on jobs, claiming that the LNG Canada investment would create 10,000 jobs and provide training opportunities for younger people as long-time members of the construction trade unions retire.

LNG Canada is expected to make a final investment decision in late 2018 and now, under the newly announced framework, B.C. has offered incentives if the company makes its decision by November.

The new plan offers LNG developers temporary relief from the provincial sales tax, new emissions standards, elimination of the LNG income tax and rebates for penalties paid under the carbon tax if the facility meets best-in-world standards.

According to the government, best-in-world standards would be met by electrifying fracking operations in natural gas fields, using new technology to reduce emissions in the LNG cooling process and by electrifying ancillary LNG operations.

“Energy-intensive trade-exposed industries already have an opportunity to reduce their emission profile and therefore potentially reduce their emissions cost,” Horgan said. “That’s not to absolve them of their responsibility. It’s to help them transition as carbon pricing goes up and their industry transforms.”

Exerpt from B.C.’s technical briefing on LNG Canada and the new natural gas framework.

Horgan said should the new project come online it will require “radical electrification” of B.C.’s economy, adding the province has an abundance of hydroelectric power.

“There is no intention to give anyone a free pass,” he said.

Yet, Weaver said government has yet to put a credible climate path forward.

“I’ve spent 25 years in the field of climate science…frankly I don’t know how you are going to be able to get to 40 per cent reductions and add 8 megatonnes.”

Weaver said measures like the carbon tax, which are designed to help B.C. meet its climate targets, are undermined by proposals that exempt industry from planned increases to the tax.

The LNG Canada plant was approved in 2015 by both the B.C. and federal governments, with 74 conditions. None of the conditions relate to carbon emissions or place a limit on emissions.

Weaver waiting on fugitive emissions price

Another major obstacle to B.C.’s ability to carve a credible climate path forward are fugitive emissions, Weaver said.

A recent peer-reviewed study by the David Suzuki Foundation and St. Francis Xavier University found methane emissions from B.C.’s oil and gas industry are two-and-a-half times higher than reported.

A follow up study found wells in the Montney region, which would supply the gas to LNG Canada, release more than 11,800 tonnes of methane into the air annually — the equivalent of burning 4.5 million tonnes of coal or putting two million cars on the road.

B.C. does not currently price these fugitive emissions under the provincial carbon tax.

Weaver said the Green Party’s agreement with the NDP stipulates the province put a price on fugitive emissions.

In a previous interview with DeSmog Canada, Weaver said he would topple the government if the NDP pushed for the development of an LNG industry.

He reiterated Thursday that the Green Party’s confidence in the minority government is “firmly embedded” in a credible climate plan.

With files from Sarah Cox.

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.

For years, Nexen's Aurora project envisioned transforming Digby island near Prince Rupert into a sprawling $20 billion LNG plant shipping 24 million tonnes of liquified B.C. natural gas to Asia. 

On September 14, Aurora officially backed out, reinforcing the words written in this year’s NDP election platform.  “[Ex-premier Christy Clark] bet everything on natural gas prices and left the rest of B.C.’s economy without support,” it reads.  “Resource communities and families have paid the price. That’s got to change.”

But change to what?  With the rise of B.C.’s new NDP government, forged with the support of the B.C. Greens under climate scientist Andrew Weaver, there is now an opportunity to reset and find more realistic ways to tap the wealth of natural gas in the Peace region. 

“The idea that there is going to be a big mega project like Petronas [Pacific NorthWest LNG] was nothing but a pipe dream,” says Andrew Weaver.  “The real question is, what are we going to do with the resource?"

Where We’re At Now

There are three B.C. LNG projects worth noting these days: Woodfibre, a small project near Squamish, Tilbury, a recently-expanded LNG facility in Delta operated by FortisBC, and LNG Canada, a big project at Kitimat led by Shell, which continues to delay a final investment decision.

For the short term the economics of new LNG are nonexistent, but in the medium term, things could improve: Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest global LNG outlook points to a current oversupply, with supply and demand projected to match again around 2024. After that, new supply could be needed.

When and if the that time comes, the NDP has issued four vague conditions that new projects will have to meet. Proposals must provide a fair return for the resource, include local job guarantees and training, First Nations partnerships, and protection for the environment — including “living up to our climate commitments.”

The B.C. Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources refused interview requests and would not provide additional information about the conditions — or other key aspects of NDP election promises pertaining to natural gas.

And as for Christy Clark’s Prosperity Fund from LNG windfalls which was projected to eventually hold $100 billion, the NDP during the election promised to drain the fund and use it to fund the cutting of two Lower Mainland bridge tolls.

A Pending Scientific Review of Fracking?

The amount of natural gas extracted in B.C. continues to go up — in spite of current low gas prices and the short-term death of LNG.

Today this growing production reaches three primary markets: Alberta, where much of it is used to create steam for in situ bitumen mining in the oilsands; the U.S., where some is shipped as LNG out of Louisiana, and finally, for domestic use in British Columbia.

Virtually all current (and future) production will involve hydraulic fracking — an energy-intensive process where enormous quantities of water, sand and chemicals are forced under high pressure into horizontal wells to release natural gas trapped in the rock.

Back during the election campaign, the NDP promised to conduct a scientific review of fracking. The province did not provide details about the review for this story, but Ben Parfitt, a Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives resource policy analyst — who has documented the use of illegal dams by the gas industry to provide water for fracking — says such a review is warranted. 

Parfitt points to an August 2015 incident where a B.C. fracking site operated by Progress Energy is believed to have triggered a 4.6 magnitude earthquake — among the biggest earthquakes by a natural gas industry drilling-fracking operation anywhere, ever. Progress’ own data later showed that this operation used about eight times the volume of water used in a typical U.S. fracking operation.

“If we ever saw a major LNG facility open on our coast, then the level of drilling and fracking would increase by a very significant factor. The water demand would go up exponentially,” Parfitt said.

Weaver Says Manage Cumulative Impacts

It’s relevant that the annual meeting of the Union of B.C. Municipalities this week will include a vote on a B.C. moratorium on fracking. B.C. Green Party leader Andrew Weaver doesn’t favour this approach, but says we need to find a way to manage the “cumulative impacts” of our current “wild west” approach to resource extraction. “Nobody is saying ‘stop producing natural gas,’ but under the Liberals it was a get-to-yes approach.”

To that end the Greens have proposed creating a natural resources board that could oversee and manage the many cumulative impacts of resource development.  He points to the “patchwork” approach to protecting caribou as an example of the current dysfunction.

“We have roads going in here, forestry there, mining here and natural gas there.  There is no overarching look at how we can develop our resources in a manner that is sustainable in the long term,” Weaver said.

 “That’s what we are looking for.”

Natural Gas for Domestic “Fuel Switching”

A bright spot for B.C. natural gas, says Tyler Bryant of FortisBC, is to use it in B.C. to substitute the use of marine diesel and heavy fuel oil in ferries and ships, and diesel in transport trucks. 

FortisBC recently expanded its Tilbury LNG facility at Delta — which today supplies fuel for five passenger ferries operated by B.C. Ferries and two cargo ferries for Seaspan. Since 2011, it has provided incentives to convert more than 700 natural gas vehicles in B.C. — which the company says has saved 135,000 tonnes of CO2 and $20 million in fuel costs to date.

New Government BC’s Natural Gas: What Changes are Coming Down the Pipe? https://t.co/tVvuBVbPwI #bcpoli #climate #LNG #natgas #fracking

— DeSmog Canada (@DeSmogCanada) September 26, 2017

Tyler says natural gas makes it possible to address difficult to “decarbonize” sectors like shipping and trucking — and allows us to use a B.C. resource that has lower C02 emissions. To critics who want cleaner alternatives sooner, he says natural gas can be viewed as a bridge.

“We have an option to reduce GHGs and local air pollution right now with natural gas. And in 10 years time when you have to replace the vehicles, if other technologies are available, then we can explore those options.”

Raising the Carbon Tax — Which Will Promote Using B.C. Gas

On the day I talk with Andrew Weaver about natural gas, he’s on speakerphone driving a broken microwave to a Victoria-area recycling depot. 

“Government has a role to play in this,” he says of substituting natural gas for dirtier fuels.  He is cut short when a transport truck passes and blasts him with fumes. “If that guy had been using compressed natural gas instead of diesel, that wouldn’t have happened,” he laughs.

Weaver says fuel switching using natural gas to displace emissions from ships and trucks is an opportunity we need to capitalize on in B.C.   

One way to get there, he adds, is by pricing emissions via the newly invigorated B.C. carbon tax — which will be rising from the current $30 to $50 tonne by 2021.

By making it more expensive to operate higher-polluting vehicles, Weaver says the tax has the power to drive society to lower-emitting transportation.

In the deliberations between Greens and the NDP, Weaver says it was vital to give B.C. industry “certainty” around how the carbon tax would be increased — so they pushed for the price to increase by $5/year staring in 2018, and will reach Canada’s national target (of $50/tonne) by 2021 — a year ahead of the national schedule.

Quantifying, Capturing ‘Fugitive Emissions’ Still a Challenge

The newly strengthened carbon tax will also force the gas-patch to clean up a lot of emissions it has not had to pay for — up to now.

In the MOU signed between the Greens and NDP, a commitment was also made to broaden the carbon tax to capture so-called “fugitive” emissions — a catch-all phrase for CO2 and methane emissions that occur during gas extraction and processing. 

Maximilian Kniewasser, Program Director of B.C. Climate Policy at the Pembina Institute, says such emissions occur when industry vents CO2 that is extracted with natural gas, as well as from methane escaping from pumps and controls in processing plants and pipelines. There are also the leaks that occur among many moving parts working under pressure.

Capturing these emissions dovetails with Canada’s commitment to reduce emissions by 45 per cent from oil and gas by 2025, says Kniewasser. 

The hard part, he concedes, will be to agree on a way to quantify the amounts of “fugitive” gases escaping into the atmosphere.

Curtailing fugitive emissions is one important part of making domestic use of natural gas feasible from a climate perspective but, according to Weaver, the world is on a transition path away from fossil fuel use.

“We are in the middle of an energy revolution like we’ve never seen before,” Weaver said. “To think that, somehow, we are going to continue to produce energy the way we were is a bit of a myth.”

Image: Natural gas operations. Photo: Province of B.C. via Flickr

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.

This post is the second of a two part series. Read the first installment, Unreported Emissions From Natural Gas Blow Up BC's Climate Action Plan.

Methane leaks from British Columbia's natural gas industry are likely at least 7 times greater than official numbers increasing the entire provinces' carbon footprint by nearly 25%. That's like putting 3 million more vehicles on BC's roads.

As Part One revealed official government figures state only 0.3% to 0.4% of BC's natural gas production leaks into the atmosphere. No believes that is accurate. Independent studies in the US show these methane leaks range between 2% and 9%.

All aspects of natural gas operations including drilling gathering, processing and pipelines can leak methane into the atmosphere. The industry doesn't like to call them leaks, preferring the term “fugitive emissions.”

Seals, valves, joints, compressor pumps all can leak. There are literally hundreds of thousands of points where this can occur said Bill Tubbs Manager, Environmental Permitting & Regulation at Spectra Energy Transmission. Headquartered in Houston, Texas Spectra is the biggest gas pipeline and processing companies operating in western Canada.

“We don't measure fugitive emissions, we estimate how much for reporting purposes,” Tubbs told DeSmog.

Since methane is flammable and potentially explosive all gas operations are constantly on the lookout for significant leaks and seal them. “Serious leaks are dangerous,” he said. Companies have leak detection programs including infrared video that can reveal the source of leaks.

Neither the BC Ministry of the Environment nor the industry regulator, the BC Oil and Gas Commission, do on site inspections for fugitive emissions Tubbs said.

Large releases of methane can happen when a new well is drilled. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that about 25 million cubic feet of gas escapes on “well completion.” The EPA estimates that 15% of this gas is flared or burned on average, leaving about 450,000 cubic meters of methane to escape into the atmosphere for every new well (Assumes only 78% of total volume of gas released is methane).

Some 720 new wells were completed in 2010 according to the BC Oil and Gas Commission. Emissions from these new wells total 4.6 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) using the EPA data. Based on industry reports, BC reported a total of of 2.2 Mt of CO2e for fugitive methane emissions from all sources including well completions.

As shown in Part One methane is far better at trapping heat in the atmosphere than CO2. BC uses a global warming potential (GWP) of 21 for methane, meaning methane will trap 21 times more heat than carbon dioxide (over a certain time-frame). Many climate scientists say new research shows that a GWP of 105 should be used.

This means the climate impact of well completions in 2010 may be five times greater amounting to a release of 23 Mt of CO2 into the atmosphere. That's more than twice the yearly emissions from all of BC's 2 million passenger cars (Avg: 5.1 ton CO2/vehicle/year).

Fugitive emissions and venting of methane probably amount to 1% to 2% of gas production in BC Tubbs said. He does not think higher levels of 3% to 8% measured in the US apply to BC.

"Methane leaks from the extraction of natural gas are a huge driver of climate change,” said Guy Dauncey, Executive Director of the BC Sustainable Energy Association.

Unless there is a clear plan to capture and neutralize the methane, the Province's proposed strategy for liquified natural gas (LNG) exports will make it completely impossible to achieve the legislated goal of a 33% reduction in emissions by 2020 under the BC Climate Action Plan Dauncey told DeSmog.

Current methane emissions are making a mockery of the Climate Action Plan but LNG export plans would “blow them way, way out of the water,” said Matt Horne, director of the Pembina Institute's Climate Change program.

“The math simply does not add up,” Horne told DeSmog.

There are as many as 17 LNG export terminal proposals floating around but only three are likely to be built by 2020 he said. Those three would likely double BC's natural gas output, mainly from shale gas from hydraulic fracturing operations which have higher reported levels of methane leaks.

Although the Province reported only 2.2 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2e of methane emissions in 2010, the actual amount was likely between 15.5 to 77.5 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2e, depending the GWP used. Doubling gas production means that in 2020 these emissions would be 46.5 Mt (using GWP of 33) to 155 Mt (GWP of 105) a year.

In 2010 the entire province's carbon footprint was 62 Mt. By 2020 it is supposed to shrink to 45 Mt.

Setting aside methane leaks for a moment, fracking, processing and pumping natural gas over long distances consumes large amounts of energy. LNG facilities are also highly energy intensive. One LNG facility would emit 2 Mt of CO2e from burning natural gas to power the operation, Horne calculated.

For all these reasons LNG exports would not contribute to lower global carbon emissions even if they replaced coal as an energy source, said James Bradbury, senior associate in the Climate and Energy Program at the World Resources Institute (WRI). WRI is a non-profit, non-partisan think tank based in Washington, D.C.

A recent WRI report, "Clearing the Air," found that cuts in methane leakage from natural gas systems are cost effective and among the most important steps the U.S. can take toward meeting its GHG emissions reduction goals, Bradbury said at a U.S. House of Representatives hearing May 7.

“(C)utting fugitive emissions from natural gas systems would ensure that the climate impacts of natural gas are much lower than coal,” he said.

The WRI's very comprehensive report details ways the industry can use existing technology to lower methane emissions to 1% by 2020.

However a doubling of BC's natural gas production by 2020 would mean that even if only 1% leaks it will add between 15 and 50 Mt to BC's carbon footprint. Again, this is just from fugitive emissions.

To meet the Climate Action Plan target of 2020 the province's emissions should be 45 Mt.

“The public isn't really aware of the consequences of the LNG export push,” said Horne.

Image Credit: LNG rendering by Apache Canada, used in BC's LNG Strategy Report.

The Narwhal’s reporters are telling environment stories you won’t read about anywhere else. Stay in the loop by signing up for our free weekly dose of independent journalism.

This is the first part of a two-part series on methane emissions in British Columbia. Read Part 2, BC LNG Exports Blow Climate Targets Way, Way Out of the Water.

Methane emissions from British Columbia's natural gas industry are likely at least 7 times greater than official numbers blowing BC's Climate Action Plan out of the water. Natural gas is nearly all methane and since methane is such a powerful climate warming gas these unreported emissions mean the total CO2 equivalent emissions for the entire province are nearly 25% higher than is being reported.

The province's legislated climate plan is to reduce CO2 equivalent emissions (CO2e) 33% below 2007 levels by 2020. The booming natural gas sector may make that target an impossibility.

Each year the BC gas industry "loses" about 20% of the natural gas between pumping it out of the ground and its final destination. That was 7.4 billion cubic meters in 2010 out of a total production of 36.4 billion cubic meters according government statistics (BC's Natural Gas Exports). If a cubic meter was a second, 7.4 billion seconds equals 240 years.

While this gas was "lost in the field, the plant or during distribution and export" the report says most is not actually 'lost' but used by the industry to power equipment, pump the gas through the pipelines and so on.

But some of this gas escaped into the atmosphere through leaks, deliberate venting and what the industry calls fugitive emissions. According to senior official in the BC Ministry of Environment just 0.3 to 0.4% was lost to the atmosphere in 2010. However, recent US studies of the gas industry show these losses or fugitive emissions are between 2% and 9%.

BC Methane Leak Estimate 0.3%; Actual US measurements 4% to 9%

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Actual measurements of the amount of methane escaping gas fields and pipelines are rare and not done by the Ministry. Recent in-field measurements at two different locations in Colorado and Utah found methane leakage ranging from 4% to 9% according to a report in the science journal Nature.

Robert Howarth and colleagues at Cornell University in New York State estimated that between 3.6% and 7.9% of all shale gas produced leaks in studies published in 2012 and 2011. Shale gas obtained through hydraulic fracking is believed to be leakier than traditional drilling methods. About half of BC gas is obtained by fracking. Most of BC's gas is exported to Alberta and the US.

BC's reported methane leaks are "absurdly low" Howarth told DeSmog. 

"The very, very lowest numbers ever published, and they were published by industry, were 0.67%," Howarth said.

"As more field measurements are made, our numbers (mean of 5.8%) are looking like they might even be low."

It is hugely important to know how much methane is leaking. When methane is burned to heat your home the waste product is CO2. While CO2 lives for centuries in the atmosphere, unburned methane has a shorter life but is much better at trapping heat than CO2. Initially this heat-trapping power was considered 21 times greater than CO2 over a 100-year time period. Later this was increased to 25 times which is widely used and this is expected to be raised to 33 times. These metrics are called “global warming potential” or GWP.

However, new research shows over a 20-year-time span methane's global warming potential (GWP) is up to 105 times greater than CO2.

"Given the urgent need to reduce methane emissions globally to keep global temperature rise below the critical value of 1.5 to 2 degree C. many Earth System scientists believe the 20-year time frame is the appropriate one to use," said Howarth.

One of the world's leading methane experts agrees.

"If you believe limiting near-term climate change is an important goal for society, than it makes sense to pay attention to the 20-yr value (105X)," Drew Shindell at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies told DeSmog.

Methane Leaks Like Adding At Least 3 Million Cars to BC Roads

If BC's leaks are in reality 3% then that's roughly 1.1 billion cubic meters of methane that escapes into the atmosphere each year. That means these leaks are equivalent to pumping out 15.5 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 based on GWP of 21 that the province uses, and is the current international standard until later this year. That's equivalent to the emissions from operating 3 million cars for one year (Avg: 5.1 ton CO2/vehicle/year). The province has 2 million licensed passenger vehicles.

Using the climate protection metric of a GWP of 105 then BC's methane leaks is the same as pumping 77.5 Mt of CO2 into the atmosphere every year, more than doubling the province's carbon footprint.

Emissions for the entire province from all sources, transport, energy, home, industry etc. was 62 Mt in 2010 (most recent year available). Of that total just 2.2 Mt of CO2 were attributed to methane emissions from the natural gas industry according to a senior official at the Ministry of Environment.

The main reason for the huge gap between BC's reported methane emissions of 2.2 Mt vs. the more realistic emissions of 15.5 to 77.5 Mt appears to be under reporting by the industry.

End part one. In part two the gas industry responds, and what fugitive emissions mean for BC's hopes to become an LNG export giant.

Image Credit: By Nexen Inc. in BC's Natural Gas Strategy Report.

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