Canada and the U.S. have shared electricity for more than a century. Is that at risk?
Ontario Premier Doug Ford says Canada should flip the light switch off if Trump follows through on tariff threats. What does that mean for power imports, exports — and bills?
In response to Trump's tariff threats, Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened to withhold electricity exports to three neighbouring American states, whose power systems depend on Canadian electricity.
The U.S.-Canada border is one of the longest and most secure shared borders in the world, but one thing gets through it pretty easily: electricity.
For more than a century, the two countries have bought and sold power between provinces and states. At any given moment, electricity is flowing in either direction across a shared and extremely massive transmission grid, with the goal of keeping electricity affordable and available, especially when it’s most needed. Canada and America have helped each other during cold snaps, heat waves, droughts and floods.
While our shared systems have made us susceptible to each other’s energy failures — 50 million people lost power when overgrown trees in Cleveland caused North America’s largest blackout ever, in 2003 — for the most part, this relationship has been seamless.
All of that could now change.
In November, U.S. then-president-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports as soon as he returns to the White House — unless the two countries improve security along their borders. This tariff would make Canadian electricity more expensive for Americans at a time when demand is rising exponentially.
In response, Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened to withhold electricity exports to three neighbouring American states, whose power systems depend on Canadian electricity. He described it as an option of “last resort,” but one he wouldn’t hesitate to use if Canada and the new administration can’t come to an agreement.
This marks the first major threat to the two countries’ shared electricity grid — and it’s a big one. The impact wouldn’t just affect Ontario or its bordering states; it could have repercussions for affordable, reliable electricity across both countries. The tensions are already high as Ontario Energy Minister Stephen Lecce is in Washington, D.C., for Trump’s inauguration day with a message of energy collaboration.
But the ability to keep the lights on across the border depends on whether political bluster turns into action, and how big it all blows up.
Here’s everything you need to know.
Canada and the U.S. have a shared power grid system that has worked seamlessly for more than a century, connecting Ontario’s energy supply to millions of homes south of the border. Photo: Sid Naidu / The Narwhal
Which Canadian provinces send America electricity?
Canada began sending electricity to the U.S. in 1909, when the first transmission line was built connecting the two countries. Today — 116 years later — every Canadian province along the border is electrically interconnected with at least one U.S. state. There are more than 31 cross-border transmission lines across both countries.
That means the countries can easily work together to balance out fluctuations in energy needs. For example, during extreme winter weather in the U.S. in 2021, Canadian electricity companies sent increased electricity to those that needed it: an act that wasn’t just friendly, but kept the heat on as temperatures plummeted to less than -20 C in most parts of the central and southern U.S. (that’s less than -4 F for any Americans reading this).
Ontario is the largest electricity-exporting province, followed by Quebec, while Michigan, New York and Minnesota are the largest electricity importers.
Why has Canada integrated its electricity system with America’s?
Simply put: we produce too much! And the U.S. population is much, much bigger.
Ontario’s very large nuclear supply, hydro plants and renewable energy sources collectively produce more electricity than the province of less than 17 million people uses on a regular basis. Nuclear facilities aren’t easily turned on and off, so Ontario sells largely emissions-free electricity to the U.S. overnight for cheap. (The alternative is letting that surplus electricity go to waste.)
Quebec also produces more hydroelectric power than it uses. That’s why it has long-term export contracts to supply electricity to New York State — home to almost 20 million people. It’s also a major source of revenue for the provincial government.
In total, Canada exports enough electricity to power 4.5 million U.S. homes.
Power transmission lines link Canadian utilities to the United States as part of a complex and highly interconnected power system that sees electricity flow back and forth between the two countries. Map: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Does America sell electricity to Canada?
Yes, and we might need more of it soon.
Ontario’s nuclear production has shrunk as aging plants are shut down or refurbished, while drought conditions have made hydroelectricity less reliable in British Columbia and Quebec. Meanwhile, a growing population and energy-hungry technology has put greater demands on Canada’s supply.
The Independent Electricity System Operator, which manages supply and demand in Ontario, reported last year the province may have to consider increasing the amount of electricity it imports from the U.S, even as it rushes to build new power plants and find new sources of power.
The balance is already shifting: by fall 2023, monthly average U.S. electricity exports to Canada increased by 70 per cent, and imports decreased by 36 per cent.
Last year, British Columbia became a major importer of electricity; 20 per cent of the province’s electricity came from America last year.
On the prairies, imports and exports are minimal, and the one line connecting Alberta to Montana has been at the centre of a legal battle with Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway.
How has politics affected the Canada-U.S. electricity relationship before?
On the whole, the shared grid has operated with relatively few discussions of tariffs or trade barriers. The disputes have more frequently been between jurisdictions or electricity producers and utilities. Communities have sometimes opposed electricity projects on the other side of the border when they fear it might affect their local environments.
Premier Doug Ford has been threatening to cut American states like New York and Michigan off from Ontario’s power. Could he do that?
He could.
The Ontario government has the power to instruct the Independent Electricity System Operator to limit electricity exports, which would theoretically impact the amount of energy neighbouring American states have access to.
If Ontario reduced or eliminated electricity sales to American states, what would be the impact there and at home?
The electricity grid really is one big machine, so it won’t function nearly as well if we cut it in half.
Two energy experts told The Narwhal the immediate impact would likely be marginal in American states, which could make up for lost Ontario electricity by tapping into local sources of power kept in reserve, mostly fossil fuels. The result would be a grid that was more expensive to operate, much dirtier and less reliable on both sides of the border. Plus, Ontario’s electricity producers would see a financial loss, which might increase costs for domestic users.
If Ontario was in an emergency situation during a charged political battle, like a winter storm, it wouldn’t be able to rely immediately on U.S. electricity, as it can now. It would have to work more closely with Manitoba and Quebec.
All of this is hypothetical, though. We’d have to see the details of Ford’s move, if and when it happens, and how various jurisdictions respond.
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Doug Ford also proposed a working group on cross-border energy policy. How is this different from what’s already happening?
It’s not that different!
Ford has proposed an energy alliance, called Fortress Am-Can, between the two countries that would “enhance and build out” the interconnected grid among other things. The same players likely involved in any new working group — including utilities from both countries and government officials — already meet regularly to discuss and negotiate interprovincial and cross-border energy issues.
But it can’t hurt to strengthen these connections, especially if Trump’s tariff threat materializes. People and businesses on both sides of the border need reliable electricity, which so far has come via collaboration and co-operation.
—With files from Drew Anderson
Another year of keeping a close watch
Here at The Narwhal, we don’t use profit, awards or pageviews to measure success. The thing that matters most is real-world impact — evidence that our reporting influenced citizens to hold power to account and pushed policymakers to do better.
And in 2024, our stories were raised in parliaments across the country and cited by citizens in their petitions and letters to politicians.
In Alberta, our reporting revealed Premier Danielle Smith made false statements about the controversial renewables pause. In Manitoba, we proved that officials failed to formally inspect a leaky pipeline for years. And our investigations on a leaked recording of TC Energy executives were called “the most important Canadian political story of the year.”
Here at The Narwhal, we don’t use profit, awards or pageviews to measure success. The thing that matters most is real-world impact — evidence that our reporting influenced citizens to hold power to account and pushed policymakers to do better.
And in 2024, our stories were raised in parliaments across the country and cited by citizens in their petitions and letters to politicians.
In Alberta, our reporting revealed Premier Danielle Smith made false statements about the controversial renewables pause. In Manitoba, we proved that officials failed to formally inspect a leaky pipeline for years. And our investigations on a leaked recording of TC Energy executives were called “the most important Canadian political story of the year.”
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