What on earth is potash? A massive Canadian export in the eye of the U.S. tariff storm
As tariff talks increasingly focus on Canada’s giant potash supply and its role in U.S. food security, you might be left wondering … what is that exactly? Here’s what you need to know
Canada and the United States are in the midst of a cross-border trade war.
In response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods and 10 per cent tariffs on Canadian energy, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his own set of punitive tariffs on American imports.
Potash, in particular, has been gaining attention lately for how it might get caught up in this mess. It might not have name recognition in most North American households, but this humble mineral is essential for North American food production.
And if the U.S. ends up in a situation where it can’t get it from Canada, or can’t get it at an affordable price? Well, things get tricky. Because Canada has a lot of it.
Here’s what you need to know.
What is potash, anyway?
Potash is on Canada’s list of “critical minerals” — minerals dubbed crucial to technology and a lower-carbon economy. American lawmakers have lobbied to see it designated as a critical mineral in the States, too.
A catch-all term for minerals rich in potassium (remember “K” from chemistry class?), potash is also one of three key ingredients in agricultural fertilizer.
Because plants need potassium to grow, potash is critical to food security in Canada and the U.S.
“Potash is very important to our operation,” Minnesota farmer Harmon Wilts said in a late January interview. “A very good chunk of it does come from our trading partners in Canada.”
Fertilizer is already in the ground for the 2025 growing season, but the next year and beyond are sown with unknowns. As tariffs drive up the cost of fertilizer, farmers could be forced to cut back on potassium inputs, which could be bad for yield. Before the U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods officially hit, some farmers, like Wilts, were working at breakneck speed trying to lock in a price with suppliers.
Industrial farming relies heavily on potash, used as a fertilizer, and new tariffs will hit American farmers with higher costs. Photo: Tim Smith / The Narwhal
Where does potash come from?
The Canadian Prairies are a mega producer of potash — primarily Saskatchewan, though potash is also found in small swaths of Manitoba and Alberta, too.
About a third of the global potash supply comes from 11 underground mines in southern Saskatchewan, where the remnants of an ancient inland ocean form the largest potassium deposit in the world. Canada exports about 20 million tonnes of the rose-coloured rock each year, mostly to American farmers.
More than 80 per cent of the potash used in U.S. agriculture comes from Saskatchewan mines.
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What countries are the biggest potash producers?
Canada is the world’s largest producer of potash by far. Global potash production was estimated at 67.5 million tonnes in 2023, according to Natural Resources Canada. Canada (mostly Saskatchewan) contributed 21.9 million of those.
Number 2? Russia, followed closely by Belarus (sanctioned by the U.S.). China (also impacted by tariffs) and Israel round out the top five.
How is the Saskatchewan potash industry doing?
Saskatchewan really is in the driver’s seat when it comes to Canadian — and global — potash production.
The province has positioned itself “at the forefront of global critical minerals production.” The province is, in its own words, “a critical minerals powerhouse” at a time when the minerals increasingly sought after.
That’s because, according to the provincial government, Saskatchewan is home to the world’s largest reserves of some critical minerals: high-grade uranium, used to produce nuclear energy — and, you guessed it, potash.
The Saskatchewan government has been busy bolstering the sector, which it dubs “vital for modern living,” offering incentives and a blueprint for extracting more critical minerals in the province.
The primary focus outlined in its critical minerals strategy is on the three things it already extracts — potash, uranium and helium — but it also wants to increase exploration for 27 of the 34 critical minerals listed by the federal government which exist in Saskatchewan.
It remains to be seen how Saskatchewan’s plan will be impacted by U.S. tariffs. (Canada isn’t immune to both political and environmental factors affecting the potash industry: in 2023, rail strikes and wildfires hurt production.)
What are Canadian politicians saying about exporting potash to the U.S.?
“I consider Scott Moe a good friend of mine … and I’ve talked to him. We need to make sure America feels the pain,” Ford told reporters on Tuesday.
Farmers are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of tariffs between Canada and the U.S. Photo: Elenathewise / iStock
“Without potash down there, [the United States] doesn’t have a farming system. When it comes to uranium, they’re using that to enrich their uranium down in the U.S. for their nuclear energy.”
“Everyone wants [Moe’s] uranium, but ship it out to other places.”
Moe has acknowledged how his province holds the cards in this area.
“It’s very difficult to one, get potash from another [country] into the Midwest, and two, the next area you’d be looking at is Russia,” Moe told reporters last week.
How will potash tariffs impact U.S. farmers?
“My stomach starts to turn just a little bit,” Wilts, the Minnesota farmer, said in a late January interview. “As a farmer, we can control the things we can control … but when it comes to something like tariffs — that is totally out of our control and very frustrating.”
By most accounts, farmers will feel the impacts of U.S. tariffs, and bear many of the costs. The CEO of Nutrien, a Canadian fertilizer company, was blunt about the effects. “Frankly, costs of this [tariff] will be borne by the U.S. farmers,” he said during a February conference call. “U.S. farmers will likely feel the impact after the spring planting season.”
Spring planting season? In much of the U.S., that’d be around … now.
— With files from Drew Anderson and Julia-Simone Rutgers
Another year of keeping a close watch
Here at The Narwhal, we don’t use profit, awards or pageviews to measure success. The thing that matters most is real-world impact — evidence that our reporting influenced citizens to hold power to account and pushed policymakers to do better.
And in 2024, our stories were raised in parliaments across the country and cited by citizens in their petitions and letters to politicians.
In Alberta, our reporting revealed Premier Danielle Smith made false statements about the controversial renewables pause. In Manitoba, we proved that officials failed to formally inspect a leaky pipeline for years. And our investigations on a leaked recording of TC Energy executives were called “the most important Canadian political story of the year.”
Here at The Narwhal, we don’t use profit, awards or pageviews to measure success. The thing that matters most is real-world impact — evidence that our reporting influenced citizens to hold power to account and pushed policymakers to do better.
And in 2024, our stories were raised in parliaments across the country and cited by citizens in their petitions and letters to politicians.
In Alberta, our reporting revealed Premier Danielle Smith made false statements about the controversial renewables pause. In Manitoba, we proved that officials failed to formally inspect a leaky pipeline for years. And our investigations on a leaked recording of TC Energy executives were called “the most important Canadian political story of the year.”
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