Councillors in Canada’s coldest city are split on whether to phase out fossil fuels to heat buildings

 A proposal that would have moved Winnipeg closer to phasing out the use of natural gas — a fossil fuel that accounts for 40 per cent of the city’s emissions — in new and existing buildings has stalled.

The waste, water and environment committee considered a motion last week that would have directed the public service to investigate the “tools and mechanisms” to move away from natural gas heating in all existing and new residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The motion, which the city council committee decided on Friday to receive as information, now sits in limbo. The motion was developed by the climate action and resilience committee, a citizen group, and aligns with the strategies outlined in Winnipeg’s Community Energy Investment Roadmap, a document designed to help guide the city to net-zero targets.

A growing list of North American cities are taking steps to decarbonize one of their most polluting sectors: heating and cooling. Since 2019, more than 100 jurisdictions across Canada and the United States have signed natural gas restrictions into law — to varying degrees of success.

The Narwhal and the Free Press lay out what a fossil-fuel free heating transition could look like in Winnipeg and what barriers stand in the way.

How dirty is natural gas?

Natural gas has been widely used as a primary heating source for several decades. But the gas is about 95 per cent methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide, which is released in large quantities in the production process. In a cold climate city like Winnipeg, that means natural gas heat is producing a lot of emissions — both to make and to use. 

According to 2019 federal statistics, about 65 per cent of Winnipeg households use natural gas for heat, as do the majority of Manitoba’s industrial, commercial and institutional buildings. Natural gas heating accounts for nearly 40 per cent of Winnipeg’s greenhouse gas emissions.

“We all know that we’re facing a climate crisis. Even though we live in a hydro-rich province, we really do need to start thinking about how we can contribute to the long-term benefits of not burning fossil fuels to heat our homes,” Cindy Choy, chair of Sustainable Building Manitoba, said in an interview. 

What are the other heating options?

Electric alternatives to fossil-fuel intensive heating are fairly common and many Winnipeg homes already use electric furnaces as their primary heat source.

There are also air-source electric heat pumps, which draw in outdoor air, absorb its heat energy through coolant loops and pump warm air indoors. These historically tend to work better in milder climates and even the cold-climate options can be inefficient at temperatures below -15 C. About 700,000 buildings in Canada have air-source heat pumps. 

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Ground-source heat pumps, called geothermal systems, also use coolant loops to absorb heat and blow out warm air, but the loops are buried deep underground and draw heat from the earth. These systems are more expensive to install, but they are more reliable in colder climates.

Heat pump purchase and installation costs can range from $5,000 to $40,000 but incentive programs can ease the burden. A study by the Canadian Climate Institute found heat pumps are the most cost-effective heating to install in new buildings, especially for cities with low-cost electricity. 

The provincial government has promised to cover the cost to connect 5,000 homes to geothermal heat pumps. Efficiency Manitoba provides rebates and other support for homeowners switching to electric heat pumps.

Are any other cities trying to phase out natural gas?

The charge toward all-electric buildings started on the West Coast with Berkeley, Calif., instituting the first North American ban on natural gas connections for new buildings in 2019.

Vancouver became the first Canadian city to implement natural gas restrictions in 2020, introducing a bylaw that would have required space and water heating in new low-rise buildings to be zero-emission by 2025. Victoria introduced a similar gas heating ban to its building codes in 2022. 

Montreal’s ban on natural gas heat in new low-rise buildings came into effect this October and will extend to all new buildings by 2025. Nanaimo, B.C., placed restrictions on gas as a primary heat source for new homes this summer while Prévost, Que. — population 12,000 — approved a gas ban in new and existing buildings last fall. 

Several U.S. states, including New York, Maryland and Washington, have also proposed some form of restriction on natural gas use in buildings, as have more than 100 American cities.

In 2022, Winnipeg’s water, waste and environment committee studied Vancouver, New York City and Ottawa’s efforts to restrict or ban natural gas use. 

Have they all been successful?

Not all of these bans have been long-lived. Vancouver voted to reverse its gas ban in July, a move councillors said would help spur housing construction. Berkeley’s was repealed in April after a federal court ruled the city did not have jurisdiction to regulate appliances. 

The Canadian Energy Centre, Alberta’s publicly-funded oil and gas “war room,” lobbied Nanaimo to walk back its natural gas restrictions last year — though the campaign was unsuccessful.

Other oil and gas lobbying efforts across America have attempted to block or overturn gas bans and led more than 20 states to pass laws prohibiting local governments from introducing gas bans.

How would a natural gas phase-out work? 

Natural gas bans come in stages, Choy says, meaning not everyone would need to immediately replace their furnace. 

“The transition can happen in a painless way,” she says. “Having a plan … and being able to go at it in a reasonable, data driven, incremental way is how I would expect the city to proceed.” 

The first step is to study the city’s options — including its jurisdictional authority, zoning and land use planning policies, bylaws and available grant programs — to introduce low-cost changes. Some jurisdictions, for example, have updated their building codes to high-efficiency standards (something the Manitoba government has committed to), others have introduced incentives to decarbonize building heat and many have started by banning fossil fuels in new construction. 

Choy says the goal is to avoid sinking funds into fossil fuel infrastructure and appliances that can come with fluctuating costs for consumers and will likely need to be replaced with low-emissions technologies in the future. 

The exact steps the transition takes won’t be ironed out anytime soon, but there’s a framework she recommends keeping in mind:

“The first thing is always energy efficiency: use less, reduce your demand. Don’t expand [natural gas infrastructure], don’t increase your use of energy. And adopt new technologies that can help us use our energy more efficiently.”

Julia-Simone Rutgers is a reporter covering environmental issues in Manitoba. Her position is part of a partnership between The Narwhal and the Winnipeg Free Press.