The Newfoundland cod moratorium is over — but the risk remains

After more than 30 years, the federal government has announced it’s lifting the moratorium that shut down commercial cod fishing in Newfoundland and Labrador in the 1990s.

The end of the moratorium includes a 46 per cent increase in total allowable catch from 13,000 tonnes in 2023 to 18,000 tonnes. Just before the collapse in the late 1980s, the total allowable catch was about 240,000 tonnes.

Additionally, international offshore fisheries were allocated a quota of 1,000 tonnes, accounting for about five per cent of the total allowable catch.

Reactions to the announcement have been mixed. Some organizations, like the Association of Seafood Producers, have voiced their support for the moratorium ending. Others are more skeptical. The union representing inshore fish harvesters, for instance, has asked the government to reverse the decision.

Change in how Northern cod abundance calculated allowed for status change

The announcement came after a change was made in Northern cod science in October 2023, when a scientific assessment changed Northern cod stock from being classified as “critical” to “cautious.”

In October 2023, the statistical model used for assessing cod abundance was updated to include inshore and juvenile cod survey data going back to 1954. This information indicated that historical cod population productivity was lower than previously estimated.

This decreased level of productivity means the cod population can be considered recovered at a lower population size than previously estimated. Cod recovery is dependent on the abundance of capelin, the climate and the environment — all factors that change over time and that need to be accounted for when setting targets for Northern cod recovery.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada manages fisheries using a precautionary approach that defines fish populations as either healthy, cautious or critical.

Populations in the critical zone are managed to promote stock growth and keep removals to the lowest possible level. Populations in the cautious zone are managed to promote stock rebuilding to the healthy zone.

At the 2024 stock assessment, the updated model reduced the boundary between the critical and cautious zone. The updated analysis identified that, while the cod population had not grown much in recent years, it had been in the cautious zone since 2016.

It’s important to note that the Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s fisheries stock assessment science is peer-reviewed and based on consensus by Fisheries and Oceans scientists, academic scientists and representatives from the fishing industry and environmental non-governmental organizations. National and international experts participate as external reviewers.

Moratorium has had lasting impacts in Newfoundland and Labrador

Newfoundland and Labrador’s fishing industry has grappled with the economic and social impacts of the moratorium for decades.

Northern cod, one of Canada’s many Atlantic cod populations, was once the backbone of one of the world’s largest fisheries, with hauls in excess of 800,000 tonnes in the late 1960s. This cod population is found on Newfoundland’s northern Grand Banks and off the coast of southern Labrador.

In 1992, commercial fisheries were shut down when the cod population declined by 99 per cent of its historical size, along with other groundfish species.

The moratorium had immediate, long-lasting repercussions for the province. It put more than 30,000 Newfoundlanders and Labradorians out of work and ultimately led to a 10 per cent decline in the province’s population as young residents left to find work elsewhere.

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The moratorium didn’t mean Northern cod haven’t been fished since 1992. Inshore, small-vessel (maximum 65 feet, or about 20 metres) fishers have been allowed to catch cod most years since 1998.

Since 2006, Fisheries and Oceans Canada has also allowed a recreational fishery each summer as cod migrate inshore, and a seasonal Indigenous food, social and ceremonial fishery.

After remaining at very low abundance throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, Northern cod began showing signs of modest recovery in 2015 and has since stabilized at about 12 per cent of its biomass from the 1960s, or 24 per cent of its biomass from the 1980s. In 2023, there were an estimated 407 million Northern cod, weighing 340,000 tonnes.

The risk of Northern cod cod declining again is high as moratorium lifts

The 2024 quota increase for Northern cod allows about six per cent of cod biomass to be harvested, which is relatively conservative, especially when compared to the fishery before the collapse. In some years, more than 50 per cent of cod biomass was caught.

Still, the risk of stock decline from 2024 to 2027 is high at 62 to 76 per cent, according to a technical report that hasn’t yet been published online. This means that Northern cod could end up back in the critical zone in 2025.

The Newfoundland and Labrador ecosystem is highly dynamic and climate change is affecting marine ecosystems and fisheries globally, compounding the challenges associated with managing Northern cod. After 32 years of a commercial moratorium, the whole world is watching to see what the future holds for Northern cod.

Disclosure statement: Tyler Eddy receives funding from the Canadian Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Atlantic Fisheries Fund, the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Sustainable Fisheries Science Fund, the Canadian Association of Prawn Producers, the Canada First Research Excellence Fund and Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada.

Matthew Robertson receives funding from the Canadian Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Atlantic Fisheries Fund.