Ontario election results: what Doug Ford’s third win means for the environment
It’s a three-peat for the Doug Ford government, meaning discussion of more highways — maybe even a tunnel — and natural gas will continue. Here’s what four more years of the Progressive Conservatives means for Ontario’s environment
Ontario’s 2025 election campaign started with Doug Ford asking for a renewed mandate to fight off U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and in the end he got it: he is the first three-peat majority premier in Ontario in more than 60 years.
The Progressive Conservatives shot to victory within minutes of polls closing. By the time of publication, Elections Ontario reported Ford’s party had won 82 seats with about 99 per cent of polls reporting.
In his victory remarks, Ford celebrated his “strong, historic third mandate,” though it is marginally smaller than the one he had in 2022. With these results, Ford said, “the people said yes” to building massive and expensive infrastructure and energy projects, including pipelines, small modular reactors and electric vehicles. He listed a dozen highways, leading with his pledge to tunnel under Highway 401. Ford added that “the people said yes” to “unleash the awesome potential of the Ring of Fire.” He said the people gave him a mandate to “get the federal government out of the way so we can build projects” — though he promised to work with everyone.
The Ontario NDP will keep their place as the Official Opposition led by the now-re-elected Marit Stiles. But her party will go back to Queen’s Park with fewer seats, dropping from 31 to 26.
In her remarks, Stiles spoke directly to the conflicts that have faced the first two terms of the Ford government. “I heard from a lot of people out there on the road that want us to bring back some integrity to government and stop the wasteful government scandals, and you can count on us to continue to hold the government to account every single day,” she said.
The biggest surprise came from the Ontario Liberals. Despite polls predicting them in opposition, the Liberals didn’t gain enough seats to overtake the NDP, but did pick up more than they had in 2022 with 14 seats compared to eight, bringing them back to official party status. Notably, former Mississauga mayor-turned Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie lost in her riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville.
We’re investigating Ontario’s environmental cuts
The Narwhal’s Ontario bureau is telling stories you won’t find anywhere else. Keep up with the latest scoops by signing up for a weekly dose of our independent journalism.
We’re investigating Ontario’s environmental cuts
The Narwhal’s Ontario bureau is telling stories you won’t find anywhere else. Keep up with the latest scoops by signing up for a weekly dose of our independent journalism.
Haldimand-Norfolk delivered the sole independent seat by electing Bobbi Ann Brady, formerly an executive assistant to a Progressive Conservative MPP.
Parry Sound-Muskoka was one of the more interesting showings of the night, with the Ontario Greens nearly picking up their third seat in Queen’s Park. But the cottage-country riding voted narrowly in favour of the incumbent, Ford’s former natural resources minister Graydon Smith. The Greens are set to return to Queen’s Park with two seats and Leader Mike Schreiner said in his emotional victory remarks that they would do their “jobs to hold the government to account.”
Both Schreiner and Crombie specifically mentioned the Greenbelt as an example of maintaining that accountability in their speeches as the final numbers came in.
In general, the snap election delivered little excitement, even though Ford’s Progressive Conservatives began the campaign with a RCMP investigation simmering in the background. The government’s decision to open sections of the Greenbelt, the environmentally protected land outside Toronto, for housing construction in fall 2022 is still being scrutinized by the Mounties, after the government reversed its decision amid public outcry. But that’s just one notation in the Conservatives’ controversial seven-year environmental track record.
The Ford government hasn’t delivered any significant housing in Ontario, despite repeated promises to do so and changes to environment and land-use regulations to make it easier to build on farmland and wetlands. And, regardless of significant investments in the electric-vehicle industry, manufacturing hasn’t started yet in any meaningful way, though there’s a clear push to ready more land for industry. Ford also promised to build highways, rip out bike lanes and boost power generated from methane-heavy natural gas.
But these moves — among others touching on hot-button issues like health care and education — cost the Ontario Progressive Conservatives only two seats, with the party dropping from 83 seats in 2022 to 81 this election. It’s a clear majority for the incumbent party, but not the stronger mandate Ford had hoped for.
In the end, the election wasn’t about much at all, with parties lobbing political shots that were at best ineffective and at worst misleading. The most notable example was Ford and Crombie’s bickering over the carbon tax.
Leading up to the campaign, Ford dubbed Crombie the “queen of the carbon tax,” even though she had nothing to do with the implementation of the emissions-reduction scheme, which is a federal program. In response, the Ontario Liberals pledged in their platform to “scrap Doug Ford’s carbon tax,” — which, once again, is a federal program.
The Liberals told The Narwhal they’re calling it Doug Ford’s tax because Ontario is subjected to the levy due to his government’s lack of an adequate emissions-reduction policy. That is technically accurate, but it’s also wildly confusing and strange to tie climate policy to a premier with a less than glowing track record on the environment.
This is just one absurd example of how the election amounted to not much at all, which explains why little has changed in the makeup of Queen’s Park. So what happens next?
Re-elected as premier, Doug Ford will now have to deliver on big promises — with great environmental implications — including highways, transit and energy. Illustration: Kagan McLeod / The Narwhal
What Doug Ford’s third Ontario election victory means for the environment
The re-elected Ford government will now have to deliver on big promises with significant environmental implications.
Much of the government’s to-do list isn’t new. Some promises go back to when the Progressive Conservatives first took office in 2018, but the third-term government has to navigate environmental and energy challenges that are only becoming more acute.
In the realm of transportation, that list includes the long-promised Highway 413 and Bradford Bypass, as well as a tunnelled expressway under Highway 401 to connect somewhere around Brampton or Mississauga to Scarborough or Markham, although it’s unlikely much progress will be made on this massive and costly project. Ford has also promised to remove existing bike lanes and prevent others from being built, and made vague and long-repeated commitments to deliver light-rail transit and an expansion of GO trains, with more frequent service, new lines and cup holders to boot.
On energy issues, the re-elected Ford government has to show the results of its “all of the above approach” to procurement as energy demand continues to outweigh supply. Although that opens the door to all energy sources, the government has heavily invested in nuclear energy, including a proposed new plant in Port Hope, and boosted generation from natural gas despite receiving expert advice to shift away from it.
On critical minerals, the government will have to show how it will maintain its commitment to invest in the electric-vehicle industry while also working with First Nations to enable mining in the Ring of Fire region — many of which have raised concerns about the pace and environmental consequences of the push for critical minerals. Meanwhile, the Progressive Conservative platform committed to designating areas with multiple critical mineral deposits, like the Ring of Fire, as “regions of strategic importance,” which would allow the government to accelerate project permitting.
When it comes to housing, the government has to show how it will navigate the tradeoff between development and the environment. Their election platform no longer mentions the party’s long-repeated promise to build 1.5 million homes by 2031, and also doesn’t say much about protecting farmland or green space.
And with all of those projects come impacts on people, on endangered species and other wildlife — and on the province’s already pinched budget. They also carry the weight of history, with the Ford government needing to operate in a more transparent and accountable way to avoid another Greenbelt-esque scandal.
If the campaign trail is any indication, the party is aware of this risk, but also not fully subscribing to openness and accountability. Per Global News reporting, Progressive Conservative party leaders ordered candidates to avoid media and debates, and praised them for following through and not becoming embroiled in scandals and bad interviews.
The Ford government’s leadership has time and again been called out by its watchdogs, including the Ontario courts, the auditor general and the integrity commissioner, for its lack of accountability. Doug Ford promised change, and now he has a new mandate to prove it.
—With files from Elaine Anselmi
Updated on Feb. 27, 2025 at 11:18 p.m. ET: This story was updated to include quotes from party leaders and the final seat counts.
Another year of keeping a close watch
Here at The Narwhal, we don’t use profit, awards or pageviews to measure success. The thing that matters most is real-world impact — evidence that our reporting influenced citizens to hold power to account and pushed policymakers to do better.
And in 2024, our stories were raised in parliaments across the country and cited by citizens in their petitions and letters to politicians.
In Alberta, our reporting revealed Premier Danielle Smith made false statements about the controversial renewables pause. In Manitoba, we proved that officials failed to formally inspect a leaky pipeline for years. And our investigations on a leaked recording of TC Energy executives were called “the most important Canadian political story of the year.”
Here at The Narwhal, we don’t use profit, awards or pageviews to measure success. The thing that matters most is real-world impact — evidence that our reporting influenced citizens to hold power to account and pushed policymakers to do better.
And in 2024, our stories were raised in parliaments across the country and cited by citizens in their petitions and letters to politicians.
In Alberta, our reporting revealed Premier Danielle Smith made false statements about the controversial renewables pause. In Manitoba, we proved that officials failed to formally inspect a leaky pipeline for years. And our investigations on a leaked recording of TC Energy executives were called “the most important Canadian political story of the year.”
Get the inside scoop on The Narwhal’s environment and climate reporting by signing up for our free newsletter. This story is a collaboration between The Narwhal...
