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With the tobacco ad war on my mind, the missive oil lobbyists sent out in response to the emissions cap announcement was instantly recognizable. It warned of negative economic impacts: deterred investment, fewer jobs, lower GDP. It’s all there.
Canada’s tobacco industry eventually lost the advertising war: smoking and associated cancers dropped, but it took decades, and progress hasn’t been linear. Fossil fuel companies are just starting to be held accountable for their pollution, and it’s far from certain what the future holds.
The proposal announced Monday won’t be official until 2025. But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s governing Liberal Party is polling badly and could be defeated within the year.
If Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party wins, he’s already said he would trash the cap, as well as several other climate policies. And Americans have just voted in a man who calls climate change a “scam.” One of president-elect Donald Trump’s first objectives after taking office, a senior advisor said, will be to “get back to drilling.”
If there’s one takeaway from the tobacco fight that rings true, as we head into the uncertain waters of a second Trump presidency and a looming Canadian election, it’s that the science is incontrovertible.
Science proved then that smoking cigarettes is a major risk factor in disease. Science has proven now that burning fossil fuels is driving climate chaos.
It offers a clear perspective we’ll need as we navigate these next months and years.
Take care and hold on to that clarity,
Carl Meyer
Climate investigations reporter
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